Kalshi election betting markets to resume, court rules

Following court battles with the CFTC, Kalshi has won approval to list prediction contracts on which political party will dominate Congress.

Kalshi, the sole U.S.-regulated prediction market, can resume listing its Congressional event contracts in America, a United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled on Oct. 2.

The startup, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has been battling the CFTC in court since at least last year. Kalshi sued the agency for denying permission to offer election outcome prediction markets at the time.

According to the CFTC, permitting betting on elections could impact political results and harm the public interest. Last month, a lower court ruled that Kalshi could list markets focused on the U.S. Congress.

Hours after fielding the contracts on Sept. 13, the CFTC won a stay order, and the exchange was forced to pause its Congressional event markets while the CFTC launched an appeal. However, Circuit Judge Patricia Millet dissolved the administrative stay and denied the commission’s motion, declaring that the CFTC failed to prove irreparable public damage would occur without the pause.

Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi settles bets in U.S. dollars, although the firm onboarded crypto-related events earlier this year. Its victory over the CFTC in the Congressional markets case could pave the way for its presidential election markets, too, as Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour said on X after the ruling.

Meanwhile, rivals like Polymarket have claimed market share in the U.S. election prediction betting scene. Polymarket data was integrated into Bloomberg’s terminal, and its bettors have placed over $1 billion in wagers on who the next American president will be.

Polymarket’s success has galvanized a new batch of players to consider the on-chain betting industry. Market maker Wintermute plans to launch its prediction market in collaboration with Chaos Labs.