Analysis: Bitcoin may see consolidation in April and May as selling pressure drops

Bitcoin’s selling pressure has fallen sharply, suggesting a period of consolidation through April and May. 

On a Apr. 1 post on X, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that daily selling volume on major exchanges has dropped from 81,000 Bitcoin (BTC) to 29,000 BTC. Following this decline, the asset may enter a supply shortage phase with less sellers and consistent demand, setting the stage for the next Bitcoin price movement. 

A shift in the futures trading market mirrors this trend. In a separate post, Adler noted that short positions surged as bearish traders tried to profit following Bitcoin’s February all-time high. However, this pressure is now weakening, and trading behavior is changing.

Through exchange traded funds, institutional investors are now playing a bigger role in Bitcoin’s price trajectory than the retail market. As a result, the asset is more sensitive to macroeconomic events such as Federal Reserve policy shifts and inflation reports.

Meanwhile, Binance’s dominance in spot trading could also signal a bullish trend. Joao Wedson, another CryptoQuant Analyst, pointed out that Binance’s trading volume is now eight times higher than that of Coinbase, and that past patterns have showed that Bitcoin often experiences a price surge when Binance leads in volume.

Not all indicators, though, point to immediate gains. Rising inflation and newly imposed tariffs could affect risk assets like Bitcoin, according a 10x Research’s Mar. 31 analysis. Now at 5%, 10x Research analysts believe inflation expectations could slow down institutional inflow.

They forecast Bitcoin may fall below $80,000 this week, particularly with multiple risk-off catalysts likely to pressure equities and spill over into the cryptocurrency market.

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $83,530, with a seven-day range between $81,488 and $88,240. Although short-term risks are mounting, declining selling pressure and point to a stabilizing market, potentially setting the stage for the next move.