Bitcoin futures and implied volatility soars as the SEC’s ETF deadline closes

According to analysis from GreeksLive, there is a strong market sentiment expecting the ETF to pass, reflected in Bitcoin’s price surge to short-term highs of $45,000.

GreeksLive, a leading trading analytics platform,  highlights the increasing implied volatility (IV) in the options market, a key indicator of market expectations and uncertainty. The at-the-money (ATM) option IV, expiring on Jan. 12, has reached a staggering 110%, while the IV for the 11th has surpassed 120%. This significant rise in IV, nearly 20% following recent deliveries, underscores the market’s heightened anticipation.

The rise in IV by nearly 20% after recent deliveries indicates a growing expectation of volatility in the Bitcoin market. This increase likely follows new information or developments that have influenced traders’ expectations, causing them to adjust their estimates of future price movements, hence the surge in implied volatility. This heightened IV clearly indicates the market’s anticipation and uncertainty regarding the outcome of the Bitcoin Spot ETF review.

Furthermore, the fear of missing out sentiment is notably strong in U.S. and European markets as investors speculate on the imminent approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF.

The formal submission deadline for applications all ETF applications to the SEC has passed. Among notable issuers, only HashDex remains pending for a last-minute filing, while others like Grayscale, ARK 21Shares, Blackrock, BitWise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie have completed their submissions.

Investors and analysts await the SEC’s decision with bated breath as the market stands on the precipice of this potential breakthrough.