Bitcoin price prediction: downside risk grows amid Trump-Powell clash

Bitcoin price is at a pivotal technical level as political tension between Trump and Fed Chair Powell adds macro uncertainty, increasing the risk of a downside break.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action is entering a critical phase as technical weakness aligns with rising macroeconomic uncertainty.

After rejecting from the $94,500 resistance zone, BTC is now resting on a key long-term support level, the 200-day moving average, a level that often acts as a dividing line between bullish continuation and deeper corrective phases.

At the same time, rising political tensions in the U.S. are adding another layer of risk to market sentiment. A developing clash between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has intensified concerns around the independence of U.S. monetary policy, increasing the probability of heightened volatility across risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin price key technical points

• Bitcoin was rejected from $94,500 high-time-frame resistance
• Price is currently testing the 200-day moving average
• Loss of 200 MA opens downside risk toward $80,000 range support

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s rejection from the $94,500 region is significant. This level has acted as a high-tier resistance zone, attracting supply from larger market participants. The failure to sustain acceptance above this region has shifted short-term momentum back toward the downside.

Price is now consolidating around the 200-day moving average, a level closely watched by institutional traders. Historically, holding above the 200 MA supports bullish continuation or consolidation, while sustained breaks below it often lead to accelerated downside moves.

Volume behavior during the recent decline suggests weakening bullish conviction. Without strong demand at this level, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to a breakdown that could trigger a broader range rotation to the downside.

Macro Pressure: Trump’s Powell investigation raises uncertainty

Beyond technical factors, macroeconomic developments are weighing on sentiment. Reports confirm that the U.S. Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation involving Powell, linked to testimony regarding approximately $2.5 billion in renovations to the Federal Reserve’s headquarters.

Powell confirmed that the Federal Reserve has received subpoenas related to congressional testimonies, escalating concerns over political interference in monetary policy. Market observers have framed the situation as a direct challenge to the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve, a cornerstone of U.S. financial stability.

This political friction between Trump and the Fed introduces uncertainty at a time when markets are already sensitive to policy signals. Historically, periods of perceived instability around central bank independence have coincided with increased volatility in currencies, equities, and alternative assets such as Bitcoin.

How macro outcomes could impact Bitcoin

The outcome of this investigation may influence Bitcoin’s next major move. A resolution that reassures markets around institutional independence could help stabilize risk sentiment, increasing the probability that Bitcoin holds the 200 MA and attempts another recovery toward resistance.

However, an unfavorable or prolonged outcome could intensify risk-off behavior. In such a scenario, failure to hold the 200 MA would likely trigger a technical breakdown, opening the door for a deeper corrective move toward the $80,000 range low, where stronger structural support resides.

From a liquidity perspective, there is relatively thin volume between current levels and the range low, meaning downside moves could unfold rapidly if support fails.

What to expect in the coming price action

Bitcoin is now trading at a pivotal junction where both technical structure and macro narrative converge. As long as price remains above the 200-day moving average, the possibility of consolidation or recovery remains intact. However, sustained acceptance below this level would significantly increase the probability of a rotation toward $80,000.

Traders should closely monitor price behaviour around the 200 MA alongside developments in the Trump–Powell investigation, as headlines may act as catalysts for volatility. Until clarity emerges, caution is warranted.

From a technical, price action, and macroeconomic perspective, Bitcoin is approaching a moment where a breakdown or reversal is likely to be decided, making the coming sessions critical for defining near-term direction.