Bitcoin traded near $75,000 after recovering about 24% from its February low near $60,000. 

Even so, recent on-chain data showed that larger holders kept sending coins to exchanges while long-term investors added to their positions.

CryptoQuant contributor Maartun said the move does not yet confirm a full trend reversal. In an April 20 video, he said the market still shows signs of a bear market rally. He said long-term holders added about 354,000 BTC over the past 30 days, which he described as “structural accumulation.”

That rise suggests some investors continue to move coins out of active circulation. At the same time, wallets holding more than 100 BTC increased exchange inflows, a pattern Maartun linked to active selling during the recent rebound.

The split between accumulation and exchange deposits has kept the market in a mixed position. Some holders appear to be preparing for a longer-term recovery, while others are using the rally to reduce risk.

Strategy raise and weak response draw attention

Maartun also pointed to Strategy’s recent capital raise as another reason for caution. The company raised about $2.66 billion, including $1.56 billion on April 14, but bitcoin did not respond with a stronger move higher.

That muted reaction added to concerns that buying demand has not yet regained full control. When large capital inflows fail to push price through resistance, analysts often treat that as a sign that sellers remain active.

Short-term holders have also added pressure. According to the data cited, they moved about 60,000 BTC to exchanges while SOPR stayed below one. That suggests many traders sold at a loss instead of waiting for higher prices.

Maartun said the structure is improving, but he added that the rally has not yet earned “the benefit of the doubt.” His view places focus on whether bitcoin can break above nearby resistance and hold those gains.

Key price levels remain in focus

Bitcoin still trades below the short-term holder realized price near $83,000. Maartun described that level as the market’s main pivot in the current setup. Until price moves above it, analysts may continue to treat the rebound with caution.

BeInCrypto also reported that CryptoQuant tracks the Traders’ On-Chain Realized Price near $76,800 as another barrier. That leaves bitcoin between current spot levels and a set of resistance zones that still need to break before sentiment changes more clearly.

The broader market context also matters. Bitcoin has gone through a drawdown of about 50%, which remains milder than past bear market declines. Q1 ended with three straight red months, marking the weakest first quarter since 2018 before April’s rebound lifted price.

While some whales sold into strength, exchange balances moved in the opposite direction. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said Binance’s bitcoin reserves fell to about 619,000 BTC this week, the lowest level since October 2025, as we previously reported.

That drop points to continued outflows from the exchange after reserves had risen earlier this year. Lower exchange balances can reduce immediately available supply, especially when paired with fresh institutional demand.

Spot bitcoin ETFs added 25,600 BTC last week, pushing total holdings close to five-month highs. Even with that support, bitcoin stayed volatile near $74,800 as the market balanced ETF buying, exchange outflows, and whale selling.