$300,000 Bitcoin calls and a fading $85,000 put wall — is the market preparing for something explosive?

Why are traders piling into $300K Bitcoin calls while hedging at $85K fades? Is this a signal the market is bracing for something explosive?

Bitcoin price reclaims $107,000 as political jitters fade

Bitcoin (BTC) has quietly stabilized after a volatile week in which political headlines briefly disrupted market sentiment. The public dispute between U.S. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk pushed BTC toward the $100,000 mark, raising concerns about short-term confidence.

The decline, however, proved temporary. Over the weekend, Bitcoin began to recover, and as of Jun. 9, it is trading around $107,800, up nearly 2% in the past 24 hours.

Institutional activity appears to be reinforcing the rebound. A growing list of companies is renewing interest in Bitcoin as a long-term treasury asset, drawing renewed attention to its role beyond trading.

MicroStrategy has re-entered the spotlight with a new capital raise. The company is issuing $1 billion in perpetual preferred stock and plans to allocate part of the proceeds toward additional Bitcoin purchases.

Metaplanet, which has been gradually building its BTC reserves over the past year, introduced a more ambitious target on Jun. 6. The firm now aims to accumulate 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027, expanding its original goal of 21,000 BTC by a factor of ten.

These developments come amid ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. 

U.S. inflation data is due this week, beginning with the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Traders are watching both releases for signals that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows an over 99% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% at its Jun. 17 meeting.

Against this backdrop, let’s unpack what current BTC options data reveals about momentum and whether traders are preparing for more upside or bracing for a pullback.

BTC options data shows strong bullish lean into June expiry

The Jun. 27 Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit reflects one of the most tightly concentrated setups in recent months. 

Total open interest stands at 123,528 contracts, composed of 77,077 calls and 46,451 puts, resulting in a put/call ratio of 0.60. The ratio suggests a continued bullish lean in positioning.

The Max Pain level, where the most aggregate losses would be realized across both calls and puts, is located at $100,000. 

Above that level, bullish positioning becomes more visible. A significant spike in open interest appears at the $120,000 strike, indicating that many traders are eyeing it as a short-term upside target.

One of the most notable data points is the surge in call open interest at $300,000. While strikes at $200,000 and $220,000 show some activity, the aggressive positioning at $300,000 stands out. 

This type of exposure is likely tied to tail-risk hedging or asymmetric upside protection, potentially by institutions or large spot holders.

On the downside, the $85,000 strike holds the most concentrated open interest. While some protection is built between $60,000 and $90,000, the volume drops sharply below $85,000. 

If Bitcoin trades within the $95,000 to $105,000 range as expiry nears, many options buyers on both sides may face decay-related losses.

The Jul. 25 expiry offers a more evenly distributed structure. Total open interest is lower at 40,267 contracts, with 25,109 calls and 15,158 puts. The put/call ratio remains at 0.60, indicating a similar bullish inclination, though with a more measured approach.

Call open interest is spread across key levels at $120,000, $130,000, $140,000, and $150,000, with relatively even distribution. Unlike the June expiry, there are no outsized bets far beyond current spot prices. 

The Max Pain for July is positioned at $104,000, slightly higher than June’s $100,000, suggesting a gradual upward shift in pricing expectations.

Much of the July call exposure becomes meaningful only above $110,000. Unless BTC breaks through and holds above that level, a large portion of bullish open interest may remain inactive.

On the put side, July mirrors much of the structure seen in June. The $85,000 strike continues to act as the key downside hedge, now joined by increased activity at $100,000. 

Below $70,000, put interest remains minimal, indicating that sharp downside moves are not being actively priced in.

Overall, both the June and July expiries suggest a market tilted toward the upside, though with different expressions. 

June shows more aggressive exposure at the high end, particularly at $120,000 and $300,000, while July reflects a more technical and layered positioning framework.

Bearish hedging remains limited in both cases, with $85,000 acting as the key zone of downside defense. The absence of deeper hedging under $70,000 suggests a low probability market view of capitulation.

BTC breakout gains traction with support from options flows

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $107,000 level, prompting analysts to assess whether the recent move marks the beginning of a broader breakout. The return above this zone is being read as a short-term structural shift following several days of tight, bearish price action.

Analyst ali_charts pointed to the breakout above $106,600 and identified immediate upside targets at $108,300 and $110,000. 

According to his chart, BTC is currently positioned between the breakout level and the next key resistance area. Sustained movement through this band may allow the price to extend higher without requiring fresh catalysts.

Michaël van de Poppe also emphasized the importance of the $106,500 support. In his latest analysis, holding above this area could attract increased interest from short-term traders and pressure short sellers to exit. 

A move toward $108,900, he noted, may trigger faster price acceleration due to reactive trading behavior.

These outlooks are supported by recent options data. Open interest in the Jun. 27 expiry remains heavily concentrated at the $120,000 call strike, reflecting a clear bullish bias. 

If Bitcoin begins closing above $110,000, those positions start gaining delta exposure. Traders, in response, may hedge through spot or perpetual contracts, mechanically contributing to upward price momentum.

On the downside, bearish positioning appears limited. The $85,000 strike holds the most meaningful put volume, acting as a key hedge..

Whether BTC can hold above these levels through macro data releases this week will determine whether this setup evolves into a trend or resets into consolidation. As always, do your own research, trade wisely, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.