Cardano price could surge as ADA ETF odds jump ahead of Grayscale deadline

Cardano price remains in a tight range this week as the odds of exchange-traded funds approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission rose ahead of a crucial deadline.

Cardano (ADA) was trading at $0.773 on Tuesday, slightly above this month’s low of $0.508. It remains about 50% below its year-to-date high.

ADA may be poised for a strong bullish breakout this week, as Polymarket traders increasingly expect the SEC to approve a spot ADA ETF. Odds of approval rose to 71% on Tuesday, the highest level since April 30.

These expectations are rising ahead of the May 29 deadline for the SEC to approve or reject the Grayscale Cardano ETF. Based on recent agency actions, it is more likely that the decision will be delayed to a later date.

Still, a key challenge facing Cardano is the relative underperformance of its ecosystem compared to other layer-1 and layer-2 chains. For example, Cardano hosts only 48 DeFi applications, a total value locked of $443 million, and $31 million in stablecoins.

In contrast, the recently launched Unichain has 27 applications, $568 million in assets, and $221 million in stablecoins. Unichain has handled over $14 billion in decentralized exchange transactions, while Cardano has yet to surpass $5 billion, a decade after its launch. 

Sonic, which was relaunched this year, has also beaten Cardano as its ecosystem has 126 applications and its assets have jumped to over $1.63 billion. 

Cardano is pegging its growth to its integration with BitcoinOS, which will make it possible for users to stake Bitcoin (BTC). However, Bitcoin staking technology already exists, with Babylon Protocol and Lombard Finance having over $7 billion in assets.

Cardano price technical analysis

Technicals suggest that ADA could break out to the upside in the coming months. On the weekly chart, it has formed a giant megaphone pattern, defined by two ascending, diverging trendline, which often precedes a major bullish move.

Cardano has also held above the 100-week moving average, reinforcing a bullish longer-term outlook. A sustained rebound from this zone could see ADA retest last year’s high of $1.307, about 73% above the current price. A breakout above that level may open the door to further gains, with the next target around the psychological $2 mark.