Coinbase–Glassnode survey: Bitcoin outlook is ‘cautiously optimistic’
A report released by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode on Oct. 20, 2025, reveals that most investors believe the Bitcoin bull market will continue over the next 3–6 months. Researchers surveyed institutional investors and produced a crypto market outlook based on their responses. The report’s subtitle, “Navigating Uncertainty,” resonates with the recent nosedive following a new Bitcoin all-time high.
- Researchers from Coinbase Institutional and financial consulting company Glassnode surveyed 124 investors between Sept. 17 and Oct. 3, 2025. 67% of institutional and 62% of independent inventors are bullish on Bitcoin for the next 3-6 months.
- Almost half of the surveyed institutions (45%) believe that the bull market is in its final stage. Only 27% of surveyed independent respondents share this stance. Both categories named the macro environment as the biggest risk for the following 3-6 months.
- 39% and 40% of surveyed institutional and independent investors believe that Bitcoin dominance will stay at the 55-60% level in the next 3-6 months.
The report begins with a foreword by David Duong, Coinbase Institutional’s head of research, who expects favorable macroeconomic, regulatory, and policy conditions. He believes digital asset treasury companies will continue to amplify crypto demand; new rate cuts by year-end could help mobilize $7 trillion in idle funds.
Duong also outlines several challenges, including the government shutdown, which limits access to key economic data, and the uncertain long-term viability of the DAT business model. The survey data are complemented by the authors’ market insights.
According to the report, researchers have a stance of “cautiously optimistic” on Q4 2025. They name the current market conditions especially good for Bitcoin.
Discrepancies between institutional and independent investors
As researchers surveyed 61 institutions and 63 independent investors, the results outline differences between their views of the market trends.
First off, while both categories are optimistic about Bitcoin, most institutional respondents believe that the current bull market stage is final. Independent investors rather think we are at the accumulation or the markup stage.
Another slight discrepancy is the view on large-cap altcoins. Where 38% of surveyed institutions believe altcoins will be the best performers in the next 3-6 months, only 29% of independent investors share this view.
Independents are more bullish on DATs with 14% vs. 8% of institutions. Notably, the share of institutional respondents who believe Bitcoin will be the worst-performing asset matches the share that believes DATs will be the best-performing (8% each), though the report does not indicate whether these were the same respondents.
15% of independent investors see Bitcoin as the potentially worst-performing crypto asset for the remainder of 2025. 60% of institutions see small-cap altcoins as the worst asset, while only 42% of independent investors share the same stance.
Both categories cite a worsening macro environment as the biggest risk (institutions 38%, independents 29%). Geopolitical risks, hacks, and regulatory failures alarm both groups equally. Institutions appear less concerned than independents about liquidity drops and potential DAT failures.
Shared beliefs
Both groups generally believe that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval for single-name spot crypto ETFs will serve as a market driver. Independents are somewhat more optimistic about the positive impact of ETF approvals. Only 13–14% of respondents in both groups expect no impact from SEC approvals.
The survey indicates that both groups see reserve token burning and development spending as the two main priorities for crypto companies with sizable token treasuries.
Both independents and institutions called DATs “the most traded trade in crypto” right now (though technically, DAT stocks are not crypto). Independents see Bitcoin as equally “crowded,” while institutions view Solana as second to DATs.
An Emerging Trends section
The second half of the report is the review of new market trends and the Bitcoin and Ethereum trends study. This former section clearly shows that the summer of 2025 saw a drastic increase in DATs holding ETH and SOL. Before, Bitcoin-holding companies were sole rulers.
As for the market dominance, researchers outlined a 7% Bitcoin dominance decrease in Q3 (before hiking in September), while ETH dominance grew by 4%. The data on Bitcoin and ETH spot ETFs growth reflects the ETH ETFs’ horizontal growth from July to September 2025. Lately, its growth has been more shaky. Bitcoin ETF growth has been more gradual and steady.
In August, ETH ETF inflows outperformed Bitcoin ETF inflows by 10x, triggering debate about whether ETH has the potential to flip Bitcoin.
The 4-year cycle graphs for Bitcoin and Ether show that the current cycle (it started in 2022) is different. It lacks immense rallies and rather presents gradual buildups and declines. This cycle, Ether notably lacked the rallies it had in previous cycles. Instead, it had a long-term decline.
Bitcoin and Ethereum trends
As for Bitcoin trends, the latest months showed that even when Bitcoin price was reaching new highs, long-term investors preferred not to cash out. It marked a new trend. The sentiment gradually moved from belief to anxiety in the first half of 2025 and then flipped back in Q3.
The Ethereum trends section emphasizes that for the first time, Ether ETF inflows ($9.4 billion) exceeded BTC ETF inflows ($8 billion). According to the report, the liquid and illiquid ETH holdings correlation in Q3 indicates that many long-term ETH investors preferred to cash out as soon as ETH saw a rally. ETH and other L2 blockchains saw a record-breaking volume of transactions while the fees were the lowest in 2 years.
