Coinbase Q4 earnings preview: Strong tailwinds point to revenue beat

Coinbase is scheduled to report a top-and-bottom line beat in its Q4 results on Thursday as the crypto broker benefited from strong tailwinds, according to H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Mike Colonnese

Crypto exchange Coinbase is expected to report Q4 revenue of $1.911 billion in the first quarter, Colonnese said in a research note. This would imply upside potential compared to the Street’s consensus estimate of $1.8 billion. Coinbase is also expected to earn $2.21 per share in the quarter which is also ahead of the Street’s $2.16 per share estimate.

‘Strong tailwinds’

Colonnese noted that “strong tailwinds” in the fourth quarter contributed to better than expected results.

Bitcoin (BTC) crossed $90,000 for the first time in history after Donald Trump’s election victory “proved to be a shot in the arm for the crypto industry,” the analyst wrote. BTC rallied hard and hit a new all-time high of $106,000 in mid-December, highlighting strong investor demand. Ethereum (ETH) also posted strong gains during the 4th quarter, rising 28% q/q to $3,330.

Spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges were off the roof, too, with over $16 billion worth of net inflows into the U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded. Besides, aggregate spot trading volumes across centralized exchanges spiked 104% quarter-over-quarterto $8.7 trillion in the 4th quarter of 2024. Spot volumes accounted for nearly $3.7 trillion in December, eclipsing the previous all-time high attained in May 2021.

Coinbase to benefit from ongoing momentum

According to the analyst, Coinbase is positioned to benefit from ongoing momentum. The company is now expected to generate total revenue of $7.3 billion in 2025, up from a prior estimate of $5.3 billion.

Colonnese is also modeling Coinbase to earn $8.29 per share for the full-year 2025, up from a prior estimate of $2.77 per share.

Given favorable tailwinds, the research firm is listing its Coinbase price target from $255 to $330, based on 11.5 times EV/revenue on 2025 revenue estimate of $7.3 billion.