Coinbase’s Premium Index Gains ground first time in 2025, market still cautious
The Coinbase Premium Index, a key gauge of U.S. investor sentiment, crossed above zero in 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price surpassing $102,000 on Jan. 7.
The Coinbase Premium Index measures how much more or less Bitcoin (BTC) is trading on Coinbase compared with other major exchanges. The recent CPI shift indicates increasing demand for BTC among U.S. traders and institutions, signaling a notable change in market dynamics.
A positive CPI suggests BTC is trading at a premium on Coinbase, reflecting strong buying interest from U.S. investors, particularly institutions and ETF participants. In contrast, a negative CPI typically signals selling pressure or reduced demand in the U.S. market. As Coinbase is one of the most popular trading platforms in the U.S., its pricing trends are often considered a leading indicator for global market sentiment.
The starting point for understanding how CPI turns positive is critical in timing and wider implications. Simultaneously, a huge outflow of 4,012 BTC from Coinbase was noted at 18:04 local time, implying institutional investors are increasingly moving BTC away from exchanges to personal wallets; in most cases, this is viewed as a long-term ‘HODL’ing strategy and that such people have a great deal of confidence in future price movements of the asset. Burak Kesmeci, an analyst on CryptoQuant, further pointed this out.
Bitcoin’s price rally beyond $102,000 aligns with this positive sentiment. The CPI is regarded as an early indicator of U.S. investor behavior and further underscores the U.S. market’s role in driving BTC price trends. Additional metrics, such as open interest and on-chain data, combined with the CPI returning to positive territory, suggest a more bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2025.
However, broader trends in funding rates reveal a more cautious stance in the derivatives market. Glassnode reported that the weekly moving average ofperpetual funding rates stood at 0.009%, slightly below the neutral threshold of 0.01%.
This marks a decline from the mid-December peak of 0.026%, indicating reduced willingness among traders to pay premiums for leveraged long positions.
This cautious positioning in the derivatives market suggests that while U.S. investors are driving spot-market activity, speculative appetite for high-risk leveraged positions remains subdued. The divergence between a positive CPI and low funding rates highlights a split in market behavior: spot markets are showing bullish tendencies, while futures markets maintain a more restrained outlook.
