Dogecoin price metrics hint at early-cycle reset, key barrier at $0.20

Traders say Dogecoin’s price cycle metrics have reset, with subdued valuation, rising active addresses and fresh whale accumulation, but roughly 11.7 billion DOGE near $0.20 cap upside.

Dogecoin price traded near recent levels as technical and on-chain indicators point to improved market structure compared to previous bear cycles, according to analysis shared by cryptocurrency traders.

Trader Cryptollica posted a long-term monthly Dogecoin (DOGE) chart featuring the Mayer Multiple indicator, which uses 200- and 50-period moving averages with a 2.4 threshold. The current reading stands at 0.66005, significantly below the spikes above 5 that accompanied the 2017 and 2021 market peaks, according to the chart. The data indicates Dogecoin has not reached the overheated conditions historically associated with major market tops.

Cryptollica also shared an Alphractal chart titled “Dogecoin: Number of Days Spent at a Loss,” which overlays Dogecoin’s price with a histogram showing how long coins have been held in unrealized loss. Previous cycle lows around 2014-2015 and the post-2021 period showed extended peaks above approximately 1,200-1,500 days at a loss. The latest data shows that metric has compressed toward the lower end of the scale, resembling early reset phases that preceded previous advances, according to the analysis.

Dogecoin price could be heading towards $0.20: analyst

Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a sharp rebound in network activity, citing Glassnode data. “Dogecoin just saw 71,589 active addresses. The biggest spike since September,” Martinez wrote. The chart showed daily active addresses ranged around 45,000-47,500 from early November while price declined in recent weeks. On December 3, active addresses jumped, signaling broader participation, according to the data.

Martinez also noted whale accumulation patterns. Posting a Santiment chart of balances held by addresses with between 1 million and 100 million coins, he reported 480 million Dogecoin purchased by whales in 48 hours. Holdings in this category trended down from approximately 35.6 billion in mid-October to below 28 billion by late November, indicating sustained distribution. In recent days, holdings rose to roughly 28.45 billion as price rebounded, confirming renewed accumulation among large holders, according to the chart.

A third chart from Martinez, titled “Dogecoin: Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap,” identified key resistance around the 20-cent level, where approximately 11.72 billion Dogecoin were accumulated, according to Glassnode data. The heatmap highlights a dense band above that resistance level, marking a heavy realized-price node where a large volume of coins transition from loss to breakeven as spot price revisits that level.

The combination of subdued valuation on the Mayer Multiple, a reset in days-at-loss metrics, the largest active-address spike since September, recent whale accumulation of 480 million coins, and a defined cost-basis resistance zone form the basis for the analysis, according to the traders. Whether higher price levels are reached will depend on the market’s ability to absorb the approximately 11.72 billion-coin supply at resistance and sustain recent improvements in on-chain activity and large-holder demand, analysts stated.