Dogecoin price outlook: Smart money accumulates as retail stays on the sidelines

Dogecoin price retraces but rising volumes and smart money inflows hint at further upside as retail stays cautious.

As of this writing, Dogecoin is down 7.2% over the last day, trading at $0.2489. With a 7-day range of $0.2472 to $0.2856, the meme coin has dropped 11% in the last week and 6% in the last 30 days. Volumes have increased significantly despite the pullback, indicating active positioning by larger market participants.

Dogecoin (DOGE) recorded $2.94 billion in trading volume over the last 24 hours, an increase of 83.4% from the previous day. This spike is reflected in derivatives activity. As per Coinglass data, open interest decreased 8.5% to $4.78 billion, while futures volume increased 114.5% to $7.43 billion.

This pattern, which is often observed when volatility increases, indicates rising short-term speculation along with some profit-taking or position closures.

Retail sentiment remains muted

According to a Sept. 22 post by CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, Dogecoin’s latest moves are not fueled by retail enthusiasm. The platform’s Futures Retail Activity metric, which previously marked tops during the May 2021 rally to $0.69 and the late-2024 spike to $0.46, remains in a neutral zone.

This suggests that institutional investors and “smart money” are still backing the rally, which lowers the possibility of a blow-off top driven by retail.

The lack of crowd speculation raises the possibility that the upward trend may continue.  Retail activity overheating has historically been followed by sharp reversals, but muted participation often allowed for additional accumulation before significant corrections.

Catalysts building structural demand

Institutional products have also entered the picture. The first U.S. spot Dogecoin exchange-traded funds — including REX-Osprey’s DOJE, launched Sept. 12 under a mutual fund framework—have opened new regulated channels for exposure.

Additional filings, such as Grayscale’s push for direct asset-backed approval, are still under review. Traders on prediction platform Polymarket had priced in a 91% chance of approval pre-launch, highlighting strong expectations for regulatory greenlights.

Dogecoin price technical analysis

Following its recent rejection from above $0.28, DOGE is consolidating close to $0.25 on the daily chart. Bollinger Bands indicate increasing volatility as the price declines back toward the $0.25 mid-band. At 48.7, the relative strength index is in neutral territory, meaning that neither overbought nor oversold conditions are present.

Although momentum and MACD both flash sell signals, indicating short-term weakness, oscillators generally have a neutral bias. While longer-term averages (50, 100, and 200-day) continue to be bullish and support a wider uptrend, shorter-term averages (10-day EMA and SMA) indicate bearish pressure.

Stronger support is located around $0.22 if selling deepens, with immediate support at $0.24. Resistance is capped around $0.285, where recent highs were rejected. A break above $0.285 might allow for a retest of $0.30, but a break below $0.24 could push DOGE back toward the mid-$0.20 range.