Analysis: Low Ethereum gas fees signal bullish mid-to-long-term outlook

Ethereum gas fees have dropped significantly, with the average cost of a transfer now at just $0.41, far below the $15.21 peak seen in the past two years.

According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, low gas fees often suggest a network that isn’t overly congested, which can be a bullish signal for Ethereum’s (ETH) mid-to-long-term price outlook.

It is easier for new buyers to enter the market when there are lower transaction costs, which usually occur during times of price stagnation or negative sentiment. However, as traders and users scramble to transact, high fees typically signal soaring demand, which frequently results in temporary corrections. 

In another development that could further lower transaction fees, the Ethereum network recently approved a vote to raise its gas limit to more than 30 million. Gas limit refers to the maximum amount of gas, or computational resources, that can be consumed by all transactions in a block

A higher gas limit means the network will be able to process more transactions per block, potentially reducing congestion and lowering fees.. Gas limit has reached 35.9 million in the past 24 hours, according to data from gaslimit.pics.

Ethereum is now trading at roughly $2,674 after falling 2% over the past day. Trading volume has increased by 10% despite the drop, indicating rising investor interest. Ethereum has been consolidating between $2,565 and $2,800 for the last two weeks, but the most recent drop to the lower end of this range suggests that there may be more declines to come.

Over $60 million worth of ETH has moved off of exchanges in the last day, according to Coinglass data, which raises the possibility that investors are accumulating ETH. Because they suggest long-term holding and lessen selling pressure, exchange outflows are frequently interpreted as optimistic indicators.

However, with $121 million in short positions at $2,650 and $90 million in long positions at $2,605, intraday traders are still being cautious. This points to a greater level of short-term bearish sentiment.

The SEC’s ruling on spot Ethereum ETFs with staking integration continues to be the largest possible bullish catalyst for ETH. Some analysts believe the lack of staking yield has limited demand for these ETFs, but approval could drive institutional inflows. As of Feb 18., total cumulative ETH ETF inflows have risen to $3.16 billion, according to data from SoSoValue.

Meanwhile, ETH’s decentralized exchange activity has surged. DefiLlama data shows that Ethereum-based protocols handled $2.62 billion in 24-hour trading volume up from $1.1 billion on Feb. 16. Ethereum is closing in on Solana, which continues to face criticism over recent meme coin rug pulls.