Ethereum price may be on the verge of a breakout

Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin across most metrics this year, remaining in a technical bear market after declining by 22% from its 2024 highs.

Ethereum (ETH) has dropped to $3,200, hovering near its lowest level since December 2024. This decline is attributed to the Ethereum Foundation’s continued selling of its large ETH holdings and the network losing market share to competing chains like Tron (TRX) and Solana (SOL).

Still, several factors suggest Ethereum may be poised for a bullish breakout, potentially reaching $5,000 in the coming weeks.

First, Ethereum’s price historically performs well in February. Since 2019, Ethereum has posted positive returns every February. Its average performance in February since 2017 has been 17%. While historical trends do not guarantee future results, there is growing optimism that Ethereum could see gains this February.

Second, data from CoinGlass shows that Ethereum balances on centralized exchanges have decreased in recent days. The total volume fell to 16.04 million, down from this month’s high of 16.09 million. A decline in exchange balances suggests that holders are moving their ETH to self-custody wallets, a bullish signal indicating reduced sell pressure.

More data shows that Ethereum whales have continued to accumulate the coin. 13 whales took Monday’s crash as a sign to accumulate, a sign that they expect it to keep rising. One prominent buyer of Ethereum is Donald Trump’s World Liberty Finance, which now holds ETH worth almost $200 million.

Ethereum price analysis

The weekly chart shows that Ethereum has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with the neckline at $4,085. This pattern is a widely recognized bullish reversal signal. A confirmed breakout above the neckline could signal further gains.

Ethereum has also moved to the fourth part of the Elliot Wave pattern. This phase is usually followed by the fifth one, which is often a bullish sign. 

The coin is also supported by the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. If Ethereum breaks above the inverse H&S neckline at $4,085, it could rally further, potentially reaching the psychological level of $5,000.