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Goldman Sachs scraps recession forecast as Trump pauses tariffs

Jayson Derrick
Edited by
News
Goldman Sachs scraps recession forecast as Trump pauses tariffs

Goldman Sachs has reversed its recession forecast after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on most of the administration’s new tariffs, calming markets rattled by trade war fears.

Earlier Wednesday, Goldman analysts shifted to a recession baseline following the rollout of new country-specific tariffs. But after Trump’s announcement, the firm updated its outlook to a “non-recession baseline,” projecting modest GDP growth of 0.5% by Q4 2025 and three expected Fed rate cuts starting in June, according to CNBC reporting.

Markets responded quickly. Bitcoin surged past $82,000, and the Nasdaq approached a 10% gain, recovering from its worst multi-day performance since the 2008 financial crisis. The 10-year Treasury yield eased from 4.5% to 4.4%.

Trump, posting on Truth Social, said multiple countries had initiated talks over trade and currency, prompting the tariff pause and a temporary reduction of the reciprocal tariff rate to 10%. However, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised to 125%, effective immediately.

Goldman now estimates a 45% chance of recession and expects core inflation to peak at 3.5%, according to its latest client note.

The surprise move came after four days of intense market volatility and mounting fears of a global recession. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will now lead upcoming trade negotiations, a shift Wall Street views positively due to his moderate stance.

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