The Iran peace talks that energy and financial markets have been tracking for weeks are underway today in Islamabad, with Vice President JD Vance joining envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for the first face-to-face meeting since the fragile two-week ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan.

The highest-stakes diplomatic event since the six-week US-Iran war began is now underway in Pakistan’s capital. Vice President JD Vance arrived in Islamabad on April 10 to join the American negotiating team for direct talks with Iranian officials, a meeting that markets have been pricing for days.

Who Is at the Table and What Is at Stake

Vice President Vance is joining US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who led earlier negotiating rounds that were derailed twice when US and Israeli air strikes resumed. According to Democracy Now!, Vance’s presence signals Washington is treating this as the final opportunity to secure a durable agreement before military options are reconsidered.

Pakistan brokered what sources describe as the “Islamabad Accord” framework, a two-phase plan beginning with an immediate ceasefire and leading into negotiations for a permanent end to the conflict and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As crypto.news reported, last week’s ceasefire triggered a sharp drop in oil prices and a Bitcoin rally above $72,000.

What Iran Wants and Where the Gaps Remain

Trump said the two sides were “in deep negotiations” heading into Islamabad and that the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that served as a workable starting framework. Iranian officials, however, have insisted any final deal must include guarantees against future US and Israeli attacks, sanctions relief, and compensation for wartime infrastructure damage.

Iran has also proposed a $1 per barrel toll on tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, paid in cryptocurrency, a demand Washington has not formally accepted. As crypto.news noted, even after the ceasefire, Iran’s continued restriction of Hormuz traffic drew criticism from the European Union and global partners who called for full and free passage of the waterway.

Market Implications

Oil prices fell below $100 per barrel after the ceasefire was announced last week, but they have remained volatile as traders wait to see whether a permanent agreement emerges from Islamabad. A full diplomatic resolution would remove the war premium from energy markets and ease the inflation pressure that has kept the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts.

For crypto markets, a successful outcome in Islamabad is the clearest near-term upside catalyst, with analysts projecting a Bitcoin move toward $75,000 if geopolitical risk is sustainably removed from the equation.