JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank expect no rally for Bitcoin, say halving priced in
Analysts from JPMorgan Chase & Co and Deutsche Bank AG say the upcoming halving is mostly priced in, shifting focus to how mining will be affected.
JPMorgan Chase & Co and Deutsche Bank AG don’t expect big changes for Bitcoin’s price after the halving, saying the market has already mostly priced in this software update, which occurs once every four years. According to a Bloomberg report, the focus will now shift toward the implications for Bitcoin mining, with expectations of consolidation among publicly-traded firms gaining market share as unprofitable miners exit the network.
“Publicly-listed Bitcoin miners are well positioned to take advantage of the new environment, mainly due to greater access to funding and in particular equity financing. This helps them to scale their operations and invest into more efficient equipment.”
JPMorgan analysts
Similarly, analysts at German financial giant Deutsche Bank also foresee no significant increase in Bitcoin prices post-halving, saying the network’s algorithm has already accounted for the update.
The halving, which reduces the mining reward every four years by half, is anticipated to arrive on Apr. 19 at 22:07 (UTC), according to data from NiceHash. Historically, shortly after Bitcoin halvings, the crypto industry witnessed a decline in the hashrate, indicating a reduction in mining capacity as less profitable miners exit the market, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.
Despite expectations of limited price volatility, Deutsche Bank maintains a positive outlook on Bitcoin’s trajectory, citing potential catalysts such as anticipated Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) approvals, adjustments in central bank interest rates, and regulatory changes, all of which could make favorable conditions for the broader crypto ecosystem.
According to Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings, the firm’s break-even after the halving rate would hover around $46,000 per Bitcoin to maintain profitability. As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $64,574, representing a 12.8% decrease.
