Senior analyst Vetle Lunde of K33 Research analyzes Bitcoin’s market trends ahead of the U.S. decision on the first spot Bitcoin ETF.
Lunde’s report offers a detailed perspective on the crypto market and forecasts potential trends in the coming months.
Lunde attributes the recent positive momentum in Bitcoin to the growing anticipation of the SEC’s decision, noting a significant rise since October, backed by strong institutional demand. He draws parallels with past events that have historically boosted Bitcoin’s value, such as the CME BTC futures launch in 2017, Coinbase’s IPO in April 2021, and El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as legal tender in September 2021. According to Lunde, these events indicate a potential bullish trend for Bitcoin in December as ETF decisions draw closer.
The report points out the sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin (BTC), evidenced by the substantial inflows in ETPs and record highs in CME open interest. Lunde interprets these trends and a 20% futures premium as indicators of Bitcoin’s resilience, largely driven by institutional investments, while retail participation remains unchanged.
However, Lunde notes minimal offshore flows and a decline in Bitcoin-denominated open interest in BTC perpetuals, suggesting a lack of widespread enthusiasm among crypto natives. In his view, this is a positive sign for Bitcoin’s market stability.
With the deadline for the spot Bitcoin ETF decision nearing, Lunde anticipates some traders might capitalize on the potential peak in Bitcoin’s value, following a pattern of front-running major events.