Marathon CEO expects no explosive surge for Bitcoin, halving priced in

Marathon CEO Fred Thiel suggests that Bitcoin’s upcoming halving may already be partially priced in due to the success of spot ETF approvals.

The upcoming halving of Bitcoin, set for mid-April, might already be accounted for to some extent, as suggested by Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings, the largest public U.S. crypto mining company. In an interview with Bloomberg, Thiel attributed Bitcoin’s recent surge to an all-time high partly to the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has attracted increased capital into the market.

“I think the ETF approval, which has been a huge success, has attracted capital into the market and essentially brought forward what could have been the price appreciation we typically would have seen three to six months post halving.”

Fred Thiel

While acknowledging the role of ETF approvals in the current market dynamics, Thiel hinted that Bitcoin’s rally may not be fully exhausted, suggesting potential further growth post-halving. Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin has witnessed a 60% surge in price value, outperforming Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins in terms of percentage profit.

Commenting on the upcoming halving, Thiel expressed enthusiasm, despite its implications for reducing Bitcoin’s supply by about 450 BTC per day and cutting miners’ rewards for block production by half: from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

“But as miners we are very excited to go into a halving, where for once prices have not declined prior to the halving rather prices have gone up so everybody is obviously maximizing to that.”

Fred Thiel

Thiel estimated that post-halving, Marathon’s break-even rate would hover around $46,000 per Bitcoin to maintain profitability. As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $68,826, with the total market value standing at $2.57 trillion, while Marathon’s MARA stock price has experienced a decline of over 20% year-to-date, according to data from Google.