Solana ETF approval by July 2025? Polymarket odds spike

The odds of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s accepting a spot Solana exchange-traded fund are rising.

According to Polymarket, the odds of a SOL ETF approval have risen to 71%, up from this week’s low of 58% and last month’s 50%.

The rising possibility has been fueled by the incoming presidency of President-elect Donald Trump and the subsequent nomination of Paul Atkins as SEC chair. Trump has also begun to assemble his crypto council by naming Bo Hines the executive director and David Sacks, a former PayPal executive, as “crypto czar.”

A spot Solana (SOL) ETF approval would come months after the SEC rejected applications by companies like 21Shares, Canary Capital, and VanEck.

The agency, under Gary Gensler, claimed that Solana was an unregistered security. 

Therefore, the rising odds of SOL ETF approval are signs that investors anticipate Atkins will be different from Gary Gensler and Jay Clayton. 

Meanwhile, VolatilityShares has filed for a futures-based Solana ETFs, which will give users 1x, 2x and -1x exposure to the coin. According to Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s Senior ETF analyst, that application is wild since Solana futures don’t exist.

VolatilityShares offers several leveraged ETFs, with the 2x Bitcoin ETF being its largest with over $3.2 billion in assets. Its 2x Ethereum (ETH) ETF has attracted over $830 million in assets under management.

Solana has become a highly popular cryptocurrency and blockchain project. Its token has a market cap of over $90 billion, making it the sixth-largest cryptocurrency.

Solana has also become the second-biggest chain in the blockchain industry with over $8.25 billion in assets. Its DEX protocols like Raydium and Orca are leading in volume. They have handled over $636 billion cumulatively and $18.9 billion in the last seven days.

Therefore, there are rising odds that spot Solana ETFs would attract investor capital since many of them have started embracing Ethereum ETFs.

Data by SoSoValue shows that Ether ETFs have attracted over $2.68 billion in inflows.