The 2024 US elections: Who’s winning, and how does crypto factor in? | Opinion
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From the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump to Joe Biden announcing the end of his campaign 100 days before the election, this year’s United States 2024 election cycle has been an emotional roller coaster. Its twists and turns are being amplified and fueled by social media pundits, AI, and TikTok algorithms. Oh, let’s not forget a pinch of misinformation to really fan the flames.
With the emergence of Kamala Harris as the new Democratic Presidential Candidate, the pendulum has swung back toward the middle, with both candidates vying for power and no clear front-runner in what I am dubbing as the “Presidential war of perception.”
Campaign narratives and candidate perceptions
On the right, you have Donald Trump with the running narrative of a savvy businessman, a DC outsider on a mission to drain the swamp and disrupt business as usual in Washington. His “Make American Great Again” slogan hearkens back to the 1980s. Conjuring up images of “MADE IN THE USA” and extensively using the American flag has invoked a sense of nationalistic pride. His “America First” mentality has struck a nerve with voters who are disenchanted with the system, believing that crime and illegal immigration are ruining the country.
On the left, you have Kamala Harris, who projects the image of a sharp, diplomatic DC insider with the chops and the temperament to handle both global and domestic affairs. Her default campaign slogan, “We’re Not Going Back,” is a direct response to Trump’s national agenda as well as the un-doing of civil liberties obtained via Roe v. Wade and The Civil Rights Act. Her candidacy resonates with an interesting voting block known as the “Double Haters:” voters who dislike President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
The reality of the challenges for each side
Let’s start with the Republican party having a convicted felon as their Presidential nominee, a hard pill for some to swallow when most convicted felons can’t get a job at McDonald’s, let alone run for president. It creates the sense that if you are rich and powerful, the rules don’t apply, which really rubs some voters the wrong way.
Another issue is Trump’s divisive language about race and personal attacks on his rivals throughout the campaign, which has worked in the past with his core supporters, but it is creating a net negative among likely voters.
One of the negative perceptions of the Democratic Party is that they are “The party with no plan and no clue.” Meanwhile, The Republican party and Donald Trump have promoted their national agenda/platform, saturating the media, as well as conferences, reporter interviews, and social media. At the same time, Democrats have not effectively communicated a solid and clear vision for the future to combat the Trump agenda, at least perception-wise.
Vice President Kamala Harris cautiously revealed her economic agenda at a rally in North Carolina, which appealed to the Democratic base. Still, her real challenge is reaching white, blue-collar men, a voting block Hillary Clinton lost in the 2016 presidential election. Although in polls she has made headway in reclaiming young and minority voters for the Democratic Party, white male, blue-collar voters are the main hurdle for a Kamala Harris victory in November.
Cryptos’ mega influence on elections
Crypto represents a diverse cross-section of voters, demographically, regarding age and ethnicity. A conservative estimate puts the number of crypto holders in the United States at 52 million. Analysts believe this year’s US Presidential election will be closely contested. I can attest to this as I am an American living in Paris, bombarded by US voters and abroad ads with Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
One of the largest super political action committees in this campaign cycle is Fairshake, a crypto super PAC backing crypto-friendly candidates on both sides of the aisle. Besides the crypto industry campaign dollars, several polls on swing state voters show they are also crypto owners. The fact that both candidates are actively courting the crypto votes shows me how razor-thin the margin for victory is in the upcoming elections.
Tale of two campaigns: Social media did in Joe Biden
The general attitude towards Biden has been lukewarm during his campaign. After a dismal debate performance by Biden, where his mental sharpness was called into question, Donald emerged as the stronger candidate by default.
Biden quickly became the fodder of social media, as viral clips from the debate began circulating online, leading prominent Democrats to call on him to step down and pass the “torch.” President Biden is not seeking re-election and has allowed Kamala to make sizeable gains in polls, closing the gap between Trump within three weeks. Adding Kamala Harris to the Democratic presidential ticket has breathed fresh new life into the campaign. There’s a renewed sense of hope and enthusiasm. Her campaign rallies look like rock concerts.
Conclusion
Who’s winning the perception war? Well, no one, of course. The actual election results will ultimately crown the winner. I believe both candidates are in a dead heat at this point. Though the president-elect is unknown, what I know for sure is that crypto voters will play an integral part in the winning candidate’s victory.
