10x Research: This bull run is over; the next one won’t happen until the new narrative arrives
A new report from 10x Research suggests it’s too early to buy a dip, as Bitcoin is heading to around $73,000 soon. The next bull run will require a new narrative, according to Markus Thielen, a CEO and the main analyst at 10x Research.
10x puts a substantial chunk of the blame for the crypto market decline on Trump’s policies and memecoins collapse:
“Many retail investors are now holding portfolios packed with meme coins, most of which are on a slow march to zero with TRUMP leading the way collapsing under the weight of speculation, much like the broader market under the so-called crypto president.”
Memecoin bubble
The report was released on Mar. 11, 2025. According to it, yet another speculative bubble has burst. In 2021 it was the NFT/DeFi bubble. This time it is a memecoins bubble. Ethereum is no longer used for memecoins, while Solana- and Pump.Fun-based coins are in a severe decline.
The memecoins’ bubble burst affected other crypto market players. One of the oldest and the most popular memecoin, Dogecoin, lost 33% of its price in February. The memecoin market bleeding undermined Bitcoin’s position as well. According to the report, “This structural decline indicates a weakening foundation, making now a time for caution — not complacency. Bitcoin (BTC) is steadily heading toward $73,000. If history is any guide, the next major (up) move will require a new narrative.”
Interestingly enough, the BTC decline takes place amidst the long-awaited embrace of crypto by the White House while gold price hits new heights amidst the incredibly crypto-bullish headlines.
The market will keep declining
On Mar. 12, 2025, Thielen appeared on a Wolf of All Streets YouTube stream, discussing his report with host Scott Melker. Although the crypto market has already gone through a serious decline, especially when it comes to memecoins, Thielen says the prices will keep on declining.
Crypto ETFs are being sold continuously. At the same time, Donald Trump threatens Canada to increase tariffs on auto imports on Apr. 2, which creates a sense of chaos and disorientation among traders. It sets expectations for April but leaves traders uncertain today. More than that, Thielen said that the new rate cuts by the Fed are not expected until the summer. It stretches the uncertainty period even more.
That’s why the price of Bitcoin will keep getting lower. Speaking about the level that can be considered a real dip, Thielen said he’d bought BTC as it drops to $73,000.
The news does not drive Bitcoin
During the YouTube stream, Scott Melker noted that the price doesn’t go up despite lots of good news. He cites the recent reintroduction of the Lummis bill that urges the U.S. to buy one million bitcoins in five years. The bill has entered the Congress. Melker says that back in the day, such news would have definitely sent Bitcoin up. However, what we see these days is rather a lukewarm reaction.
On top of the Lummis bill news, Melker mentioned the SEC dropping one case against crypto companies after another and the overall loosening of the crypto regulation as the good news that, for some reason, doesn’t drive the market these days. Melker called the news-deafness of the market a characteristic of a bearish phase.
Overall, the post-inauguration trajectory of Bitcoin has been far from being bullish, contrary to what it seems to be due to the news. Melker provided a graph showing that after Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin fell 25%, and Ether lost 46% of its value. Many other assets were in decline, too. The only two winners are gold (with 7%) and European stocks at 10%. This can feel like the very opposite of what the crypto trader reads in the news.
Thielen argued that the Bitcoin reserve news may be disappointing for crypto traders, as Lummis first told about the strategic Bitcoin reserve last year, and since then, the U.S. has still not bought bitcoins. Thielen referred to a Bitcoin reserve executive order signed by Trump earlier this month as “renaming the confiscated bitcoins.” According to Thielen, the public needs “evidence” that something was done months after Lummis told about the bill. That’s why the news cannot ignite the market.
Thielen said that the positive reaction to the news that the February CPI reached 2.8% against 2.9%, as was expected, is too optimistic as the CPI above 2.0% is still pretty high.
All in all, Thielen has no doubts that Bitcoin will recover over time, but as mentioned in the report, it will not happen until the new strong narrative hits.
