Why is crypto up today? Market cap crosses $4T as BTC, ETH, BNB see gains

The crypto market climbed on Sept. 30 as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB posted gains, fueled by institutional inflows and fresh policy momentum.

The crypto market’s total capitalization climbed 1.4% to surpass $4 trillion. In the last 24 hours, trading volumes totaled $173 billion. Ethereum gained 2.1% to hold above $4,200, while Bitcoin increased 1.9% to trade above $114,000. Smaller gains were also made by Solana, XRP, and BNB.

The rise comes after a turbulent September, when more than $1.5 billion in liquidations briefly pulled the market cap under $3.9 trillion. Conditions have since steadied, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index moving back to a neutral 50 from around 40 last week.

Market data from Coinglass shows an average relative strength index at 43.34, while open interest rose 1.5% to $202 billion. About $314 million in positions were liquidated in the past day, reflecting the adjustment to higher prices.

Why is crypto up today?

Exchange-traded fund activity has been a key driver. On Sept. 29, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum funds saw more than $1 billion in combined inflows, as per SoSoValue data. Ethereum ETFs attracted $546 million, ending a five-day run of redemptions, while Bitcoin ETFs gained $521 million, reversing two days of outflows. 

The total inflows for September are $158 million for Ethereum ETFs and $3.10 billion for Bitcoin ETFs.

Policy and infrastructure updates have added to the positive tone. The Securities and Exchange Commission eased rules on crypto ETF approvals. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has raised approval odds for Solana ETFs to 100%. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also proposed allowing stablecoins as derivatives collateral. 

On the global front, SWIFT announced it is expanding blockchain integration with more than 30 banks, Kazakhstan launched a state-backed stablecoin on Solana, and Vietnam invited Binance to set up regional headquarters.

Ongoing crypto market risks to watch for

There are still risks to watch out for, like a potential government shutdown in the U.S.,which has previously led to market downturns. Political and regulatory noise around insider trading probes into crypto treasuries adds caution.

That said, the fourth quarter has historically produced significant gains. Bitcoin has grown by about 20%-30% on average over the last four quarters. Analysts like those at Pantera Capital now eye $150,000 per BTC by year-end if liquidity holds. October could also see capital rotation into altcoins if BTC dominance dips below 55.