Why XRP price is falling even as trading volume jumps 6% today?

XRP price is falling, but trading activity is on the rise. Could this divergence signal a shakeout or the calm before a recovery?

XRP price is facing downward pressure, dropping 0.97% in the last 24 hours and nearly 5.4% over the past week despite a notable rise in trading activity. The token is trading at $2.39 at press time, extending its recent losses after slipping below the 200-day EMA at $2.60.

However, trading volume recently surged by roughly 6%, suggesting increased market participation but not necessarily in the token’s favor. Typically, a spike in volume during a price drop signals heightened selling activity. This trend likely reflects profit-taking or cautious repositioning by traders amid uncertain market conditions.

Contributing to the bearish sentiment is Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen’s $120 million XRP (XRP) token sale, which appears to have dampened investor confidence. In addition, broader market factors are weighing on the broader market. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China have heightened risk-off sentiment, particularly after Donald Trump stated that an expected meeting between the two leaders “may not happen.”

At the same time, the CMC Fear and Greed Index has dipped to 29, down from 37 last week, indicating rising fear and waning investor interest across the crypto space.

Further compounding the uncertainty is the ongoing US government shutdown, which has stalled the approval of over 16 crypto ETF applications. Investors are particularly concerned that delays could affect XRP ETF filings, three of which are already past their deadlines.

Whale activity and technicals could spur XRP price rebound 

While the XRP price continues to slide, signs of a potential recovery are emerging. On-chain data reveals that whales have recently accumulated over 30 million XRP, signaling growing confidence among large holders. This surge in accumulation often precedes price reversals, as it suggests smart money is positioning ahead of a possible rebound.

Ripple’s $1 billion treasury plans could also inject fresh momentum into the market. With the U.S. government expected to resume operations soon, there is renewed hope that delayed XRP ETF decisions by the SEC could accelerate, unlocking a fresh wave of institutional demand.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index has dropped to  39, nearing the oversold region, which could trigger a rebound. A sustained move above 50 could confirm a shift in momentum and set the stage for a bullish breakout. 

However, XRP must overcome key resistance at the $2.45–$2.50 zone. A decisive daily close above $2.50, supported by rising volume, would strengthen bullish conviction and potentially mark the start of a new uptrend.