XRP price rises as Polymarket ETF approval odds hit 80%

The XRP price turned green for four consecutive days as Ripple ETF odds surged on Polymarket and as most XRP Ledger tokens rallied.

Ripple (XRP) rose to $2.78 on Friday, marking its highest level this month and a 50% gain from February’s lows.

The rally came as odds increased that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot XRP ETF this year. A Polymarket prediction market, which has recorded $37,000 in volume, currently places these odds at 80%.

Polymarket odds have proven highly accurate in past events, including the last U.S. election, where they correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory.

Several companies, including Grayscale, CoinShares, WisdomTree, 21Shares, Canary, and Bitwise, have applied for a spot XRP ETF. Analysts believe the SEC under Paul Atkins will be more receptive to these applications than during Gary Gensler’s tenure.

The SEC has already acknowledged XRP ETF applications by Grayscale by publishing notices for its Form 19b-4 filings. That is a crucial step that happens before the start of a 240-day review window.

The Trump administration has pledged a pro-crypto stance, appointing several crypto-friendly officials to key regulatory positions. This week, Trump nominated Brian Quintenz to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Quintenz, a senior official at a16z, has been involved in crypto investments across numerous companies.

XRP’s price surge coincided with gains in XRP Ledger ecosystem tokens. XRP Army jumped 26% in the last 24 hours, while XPmarket, BearXRPL, and DROP rose over 18% in the same period. Other tokens, including Sologenic and Coreum, have posted double-digit gains this month.

XRP price technical analysis: gains could be limited

The weekly chart shows XRP’s price has fluctuated this year following the November rally. After dropping to a low of $1.8012 last week, the token quickly rebounded to $2.78 today.

A hammer-like candlestick pattern has formed, characterized by a small body and a long lower shadow, a bullish reversal signal. This pattern helps explain the recent recovery.

However, XRP has also approached the Murrey Math Lines’ extreme overshoot zone, indicating possible resistance. Additionally, signs of a Wyckoff distribution phase have emerged, suggesting a potential markdown phase where prices decline as holders sell.

For more upside confirmation, XRP must break above last year’s high of $3.40.