Arbitrum gets $10 ARB target from Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered has initiated coverage of Arbitrum’s ARB token with a $10 end-2030 price target, arguing that revenue from enterprise chains such as Robinhood Chain could strengthen Arbitrum’s economics as financial firms move activity onchain.

The Block reported on Sept. 15 that Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, set interim ARB targets of $0.50 by the end of 2026, $1.50 for 2027, $3.50 for 2028 and $6.50 for 2029 before reaching $10 in 2030. ARB traded around $0.13 when the note was published, making the final forecast roughly 70 times that level.

The $0.50 figure circulating in some summaries is therefore not ARB’s current market price. Market data on Sept. 15 put the token close to $0.13, with a market capitalization below $1 billion. Standard Chartered’s projections are forecasts and are not guaranteed outcomes.

Arbitrum price targets depend on enterprise revenue growth

Kendrick’s thesis centers on Arbitrum becoming infrastructure for financial companies that want dedicated blockchain networks while retaining technology developed within the Arbitrum ecosystem.

Standard Chartered described Arbitrum as having a “unique advantage” in helping traditional financial companies move operations onchain, according to the research note shared with clients. Kendrick wrote that Arbitrum’s business model is becoming increasingly tied to revenue generated by chains using its technology.

The bank expects ARB to outperform Bitcoin and Ether through 2030 under its base forecast. Its separate projections put Bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of 2026 and $500,000 in 2030, while Ether is projected at $4,000 and $40,000 for the same dates.

Standard Chartered’s ARB call remains dependent on assumptions about future network adoption, protocol income and market valuation. The bank identified slower tokenization, competition from other blockchain networks and ARB’s limited direct value accrual as risks to its estimates.

ARB holders govern ArbitrumDAO and its treasury, but the governance token does not automatically distribute network revenue directly to holders. Standard Chartered specifically cited that structure as one of the risks to a higher valuation.

Robinhood Chain gives Arbitrum a working revenue model

Robinhood Chain has become a central part of Standard Chartered’s Arbitrum forecast after the network launched publicly on July 1.

The Foundation says Robinhood Chain uses the Arbitrum technology stack while settling to Ethereum. Under the Arbitrum Expansion Program, chains that settle outside Arbitrum One and Nova return 10% of net protocol revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem. Eight percentage points go to ArbitrumDAO and two go to the Arbitrum Developer Guild.

Standard Chartered estimated that Robinhood Chain generated average daily fee revenue of approximately $2.8 million during the first two weeks of September. At that run rate, Kendrick expects Arbitrum to receive roughly $5 million in AEP fees during September. The figure is the bank’s estimate and has not yet been reported as a completed monthly result.

Official Arbitrum figures provide an earlier benchmark. The Arbitrum Foundation reported $360,000 in AEP license fees during July, Robinhood Chain’s first month on mainnet. AEP fees represented 35% of ArbitrumDAO’s income for that month.

For the first half of 2026, ArbitrumDAO received $6.19 million across transaction fees, Timeboost, AEP license payments and treasury income. The ecosystem processed 478 million transactions during the six months and ended the period with more than $125 million in non-ARB treasury assets, according to the Foundation.

Robinhood launched its public Layer 2 with tokenized stocks and DeFi services accessible to eligible users in more than 120 countries. The network is built with Arbitrum technology and uses ETH as its gas asset.

Standard Chartered sees tokenized equities reaching $750B

The second part of Standard Chartered’s ARB thesis relies on rapid growth in tokenized financial assets.

The bank forecasts total onchain tokenized assets increasing from approximately $340 billion to $4 trillion by the end of 2028. Standard Chartered previously projected that roughly half of the $4 trillion could consist of stablecoins and half tokenized real-world assets.

Standard Chartered expects established DeFi protocols to capture part of the activity generated as assets migrate onto blockchain networks. The bank has used the same $4 trillion estimate in later research covering Uniswap and Chainlink.

For equities specifically, the new Arbitrum note forecasts the tokenized market reaching $750 billion by the end of 2028. Brendan Ma of the Arbitrum Foundation described the forecast as an approximately 250-fold expansion from the current market.

Independent data from RWA.xyz showed $2.85 billion of distributed tokenized stock value as of Sept. 12, with 5,880 tracked assets. Using that figure, a $750 billion market would represent roughly 263 times the current distributed value, while the bank’s 250-fold description uses a rounded starting point near $3 billion.

Robinhood accounted for approximately $145.6 million of the value tracked by RWA.xyz at that point, behind Ondo, bStocks, Backed Finance and Securitize.

Robinhood provides an early TradFi test for Arbitrum

Robinhood initially launched tokenized U.S. stocks and exchange-traded products on Arbitrum One in 2025 before moving its newer stock-token system onto a dedicated chain.

The company launched Robinhood Chain’s public mainnet in July 2026, describing it as an Ethereum Layer 2 designed for tokenized assets and DeFi. Its Stock Tokens are available to eligible Robinhood Wallet customers in more than 120 countries, with trading available through decentralized venues including Uniswap.

Arbitrum describes Robinhood’s path as a “launch-and-migrate” model: a business can first deploy products on Arbitrum One and later move to a dedicated Arbitrum chain when it needs different performance, governance or compliance settings.

Robinhood Chain’s arrangement sends 10% of net protocol revenue back to the Arbitrum ecosystem, creating a direct license-income stream from a dedicated corporate blockchain.

Activity has grown quickly since the July launch. By early September, Robinhood Chain had reached $791 million in total value locked, while daily revenue hit $4.01 million on Sept. 2, according to data cited in September network data. Much of the early transaction activity included speculative tokens and DeFi trading, not solely tokenized equities.

Standard Chartered said Robinhood Chain’s performance increases, “in our view,” the probability that other traditional financial firms could choose the Arbitrum stack. Kendrick said such deployments could generate more AEP fees and support a higher valuation multiple for ARB.

The bank listed regulatory developments among the variables affecting that forecast, including U.S. tokenized-equity rules and the pending CLARITY Act. Standard Chartered said slower tokenized-asset adoption or stronger competition from other blockchain platforms could reduce the revenue assumptions underlying its ARB targets.