Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin prices to plummet before, after halving

BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes shared his opinion on Bitcoin’s price on the eve of its halving.

In a recent post, Hayes questioned whether Bitcoin (BTC) could hold its all-time high as it approaches halving.

In his recent forecast, Hayes expects BTC prices to decline before and after the halving event, suggesting that during this period, dollar liquidity will be limited, contributing to increased pressure from sellers of crypto assets.

The BitMEX founder also predicts that after May 1, the quantitative tightening (QT) cycle will ease, returning to a standard rhythm in line with U.S. inflation trends.

“The Bitcoin block reward is forecast to halve on April 20. This is seen as a bullish catalyst for crypto markets. I agree that it will pump prices in the medium term; however, the price action directly before and after could be negative.”

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX founder

As a result, Hayes has decided to hold off on trading until May, when the Federal Reserve is expected to discuss a potential reduction in its QT program.

On April 8, Bitcoin rose above $72,000 for the first time since mid-March. The impetus for the growth of the leading cryptocurrency is the upcoming Bitcoin halving, after which the block reward will be halved to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

In contrast to Hayes, many experts expect an increase in Bitcoin’s value. Skybridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci believes that the BTC rate in this “bullish cycle” will reach $170,000, and in the future, Bitcoin’s capitalization will be half of that of gold.