Bitcoin is Struggling to Hold the $30K Level as the General Market Tumbles
Despite the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s potential price rise, a closer look at the chart shows that a sharp decline is likely to occur first. On May 19, the on-chain monitoring service Whalemap released a tweet that identified the various support levels that Bitcoin bulls need to defend to avoid further losses. Bitcoin is currently trading at $30,272.80, 5% higher over 24 hours.
Bitcoin to Hit $100K?
Bitcoin’s price peaked in previous cycles, followed by a decline that started below the 50-day moving average, culminating in a capitulation event that pushed the price below the 200-day MA. Hence, during the most recent bull market cycle, many traders were disappointed by the lack of a blow-off top which usually marks the end of the trend.
During previous market cycles, Bitcoin was trading above the S2F model. Currently, it is trading below the S2F line. The model variance is now at -0.86, while the price of Bitcoin is well below the line.
Despite the lack of a blow-off top, some traders expect Bitcoin to reach $100,000 before the bull market ends. However, it is not yet clear if this will happen.
The Bulls Need to Defend Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s current behaviour has split the commentators into two camps: those who believe that the price will continue to rise and those who think it will eventually fall. While some are calling for a price of over $32,000, others believe that the recent trip to $23,800 was not the lowest point of the price that the currency will manage going forward.
According to the data analysis firm Whalemap, the zone to watch for Bitcoin is around $26,000 to $24,700. This zone is where large groups of investors deploy funds. The presence of these whales also provides on-chain support.
In a report released on May 18, the firm noted that it could trigger a deeper decline if the pressure on the zone continues. However, even though the price has already lost more than its gains, it could still be in for a price turnaround. It also noted that two times more losses were recorded on the Bitcoin on-chain in days.
Some Investors Remain Optimistic Despite the Losses
The Wall Street open was primed to unsettle the market again; however, following the May 18 session, considerable sell-side pressure across equities spilled over into crypto. The ten-month lows that Bitcoin hit last week coincide with its overall on-chain realized price, indicating that the market is entering a new bear market.
In its weekly newsletter, Glassnode noted that bitcoin is not yet in the clear if the full return to the Realized Price will end the bear market. Furthermore, there is no surety of when this will happen.
The accumulation that we saw last week may signify that the bulls are starting to take the support, and they’re holding in the $20ks range. However, many factors can still affect the market’s direction, such as inflation, monetary policy, and macro-economy.
Despite the accumulation that occurred last week, the consensus regarding the price of Bitcoin is not strong. Many traders expect the cryptocurrency to reach the $100,000 mark shortly. However, a few are holding out for a target of $1 million.
Meanwhile, some analysts believe that the price of Bitcoin could reach a high of $238,298. On the other hand, the delta top indicator suggests that the price could reach $119,886. As of right now, the terminal price indicator predicts a price of $107,801.
