Coinbase exec cracks ChatGPT’s crypto predictions

A Coinbase executive recently revealed a method allowing the artificial intelligence (AI) tool ChatGPT to provide probability assessments for various crypto price scenarios. 

Conor Grogan, the head of business operations at the popular crypto exchange, shared a screenshot on Twitter on April 30.

I ran these scenarios 10+ times and GPT answered consistently.

As an aside, It did guess that it would pull the switch in the original trolly problem, killing one life to save 5.

Jailbreak here: https://t.co/W6kLpX9ORZ

— Conor (@jconorgrogan) April 30, 2023

He highlighted ChatGPT’s predictions concerning the possible future of several cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin (BTC), ethereum (ETH), litecoin (LTC), and dogecoin (DOGE).

ChatGPT predicts crypto fates

In Grogan’s screenshot, ChatGPT assigned a 15% chance that BTC would lose its relevance, with its price plummeting by over 99.99% by 2035. 

I found a jailbreak for GPT I'm calling JAMES

-Predicts the future for ANY topic (even guesses when people might die based on its training set)
-Quantitatively assesses confidence on any topic (including conspiracy theories)
-May help researchers better find bias and align AI? pic.twitter.com/jqTcNbCT2d

— Conor (@jconorgrogan) April 30, 2023

The AI tool expressed more doubt regarding ETH, estimating a 20% likelihood of it becoming irrelevant and nearing zero prices by the same year.

GPT is generally a big fan of Bitcoin; more skeptical of altcoins and their staying power pic.twitter.com/E9sUQ8AVvD

— Conor (@jconorgrogan) April 30, 2023

ChatGPT appeared even more skeptical about LTC and DOGE, assigning probabilities of 35% and 45%, respectively, for these coins to experience near-zero values.

Grogan concluded that ChatGPT seems “generally” supportive of bitcoin but remains more cautious about altcoins.

Testing ChatGPT’s predictive capabilities

To showcase the accuracy of ChatGPT’s predictions, Grogan claimed to have tested the prompts over 100 times. He also shared the script of the prompt he used to generate the probability tables.

Here is the full prompt, which works with 3.5 and GPT4
https://t.co/W6kLpX9ORZ pic.twitter.com/aljKmRyCbp

— Conor (@jconorgrogan) April 30, 2023

This is not the first time Grogan has demonstrated ChatGPT’s capabilities. On March 15, he revealed that GPT-4, the latest version of ChatGPT, could detect security vulnerabilities in Ethereum smart contracts and even provide outlines for exploiting faulty contracts.

I dumped a live Ethereum contract into GPT-4.

In an instant, it highlighted a number of security vulnerabilities and pointed out surface areas where the contract could be exploited. It then verified a specific way I could exploit the contract pic.twitter.com/its5puakUW

— Conor (@jconorgrogan) March 14, 2023

Assessing AI predictions in the crypto world

Conor Grogan’s “jailbreak” for ChatGPT has sparked interest in the AI tool’s ability to generate probability estimates for various cryptocurrency and political scenarios. 

While it remains to be seen how accurate these predictions will be in the long term, this development highlights the potential for AI to play a significant role in forecasting trends in the crypto market and beyond.