Here’s why Bitcoin needs break above $103k to escape bearish territory

Despite holding above $90,000, Bitcoin faces mounting bearish signals, leaving traders cautious about a potential reversal.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) momentum is turning bearish despite holding above $90,000, as Matrixport reports expanding lower Bollinger Bands, an approaching Greed & Fear Index of 10 — a historically key level for tradable lows — and a growing chance of downside.

In a Friday research note, analysts at the Singapore-based blockchain firm said the 30-day rolling return is “nearing -10%, a level that has slowed or reversed downtrends since late 2022,” suggesting a potential opportunity for a trend reversal if key support levels hold.

Bitcoin is still above the 21-week moving average, which technically keeps it in a bull market. But trading volumes are down, Matrixport notes, adding that “stablecoin minting remains subdued.”

“Speculative activity is notably muted, as evidenced by low funding rates, adding to the overall cautious sentiment in the market.”

Matrixport

Traders are also locking in profits quickly. Historically, when Bitcoin surged over 40% within 30 days, it often peaked or entered a consolidation phase, the analysts note, adding that December’s rally fits this pattern.

As of press time, the trend model remains bearish, but Matrixport highlights a key turning point: if Bitcoin breaks above $103,000 the trend could flip bullish. However, “the longer Bitcoin consolidates, the lower the trigger price point for a bullish signal becomes, increasing the potential for a trend reversal,” Matrixport notes.

The report also suggests that the $90,000 level appears to be holding due to recent inflows of capital from altcoins into Bitcoin, though the analysts warning that “this signal line is declining.” Despite the bearish signals, Bitcoin’s “inherent volatility and wealth creation potential” still attract strategic investors, particularly during pullbacks, the analysts concluded.