Litecoin nears make-or-break level as LTC ETF odds soar

Litecoin continued rising as crypto investors raised their odds that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot ETF this year.

LTC ETF odds are rising

Litecoin (LTC) rose to $136 on Sunday, a few points below the crucial resistance level at $146, its highest point in 2024. It has jumped by 28% in the last seven days, making it the second-best-performing top-100 coin after PancakeSwap (CAKE).

Polymarket data shows that most participants expect the SEC to approve a spot LTC ETF in 2025. The odds have risen to 88% from this year’s low of 42%. These odds will benefit companies like Grayscale, Canary,  and Coinshares that have applied for a Litecoin ETF. 

The chances of this approval are high because Litecoin is a proof-of-work cryptocurrency that emerged from a Bitcoin (BTC) hard fork. Its main difference from Bitcoin is on the maximum supply.

Bitcoin has a supply limit of 21 million, while Litecoin has 84 million. 

Therefore, the SEC has no good reason to reject a spot LTC ETF since it already approved Bitcoin funds in 2024. These funds have become highly successful, attracting net inflows of over $40 billion.

Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF has over $57 billion in assets, while Fidelity’s FBTC has $20 billion.

The SEC has derailed some crypto ETFs in the past because it viewed many of them as unregistered securities. This explains why it approved spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs without the staking feature. 

The SEC may change this view and approve ETFs of other popular cryptocurrencies like Solana, Ripple, and Dogecoin.

The main challenge for Litecoin and other altcoin ETFs is that they may struggle to attract substantial inflows from Wall Street investors. For example, Ethereum ETFs have only attracted about $3.1 billion in inflows since their approval in September last year.

Litecoin price technical analysis

The weekly chart shows that the LTC price has remained in a tight range since 2022. It recently flipped the crucial resistance level at $113.38, the highest swing in 2023 and March 2024. This price was the upper side of the ascending triangle pattern, a popular bullish sign. 

Litecoin is also attempting to cross the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $130. Therefore, more upside will be confirmed if it rises above the crucial resistance level at $146.95, the highest point in December. 

A volume-supported surge above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the 38.2% retracement level at $185, the 38.2% retracement point, which is about 36% above the current level.