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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed a new framework for reviewing prediction market contracts that could reshape how platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi operate in the United States. According to a Wall Street Journal report, the CFTC…
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Prediction market accuracy has suffered under both weak and excessive insider trading enforcement, according to a new academic study that argued a complete ban could leave markets less informative. According to a June 2 research paper by Balbinder Singh Gill,…
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Kalshi has introduced mandatory employer disclosures for certain traders and expanded its market surveillance program after reporting more than 150 investigations, over 100 blocked insider-trading attempts, and 20 law-enforcement referrals during the first quarter of 2026. According to a company…
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The U.S. government’s first insider trading prosecution involving a prediction market has advanced after a Manhattan court scheduled a Dec. 7 trial for Army soldier Gannon Van Dyke. According to courtroom reporting from Inner City Press, U.S. District Judge Margaret…
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Polymarket has paid at least $350,000 to social media influencers over a 14-month period, with many of those creators later promoting the prediction market platform on X without clearly disclosing a paid relationship, according to a POLITICO investigation based on…
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South Korean police have launched the country’s first known investigation into domestic Polymarket users, with authorities examining whether participation in the prediction market platform violated local gambling laws. According to a Chosun Biz report, the Gangwon Provincial Police Agency is…
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House Republicans have moved to expand a congressional trading ban proposal after Rep. Bryan Steil said prediction market contracts should be included alongside restrictions on stock trading by lawmakers. According to Bloomberg Government, Steil, who chairs the House Administration Committee,…
Follow-up
Polymarket has finalized a disputed prediction market with a “No” outcome after 98.6% of voting power backed the decision in a final UMA review, despite Strategy disclosing that it sold 32 Bitcoin before the market’s May 31 deadline. According to…
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Federal investigators have opened a probe into former U.S. Representative George Santos after suspicious prediction market trades allegedly generated tens of thousands of dollars around President Donald Trump’s February State of the Union address. NPR reported that the Department of…
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Polymarket faces dispute after Strategy sold 32 BTC by May 31 but disclosed it June 1, dividing traders over when sales count in rules.
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More than $80 million has been wagered on a Polymarket market tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin sales, with the outcome now heading to a final dispute process after the company disclosed that it sold 32 BTC before the market’s May 31…
BTC
Bitcoin
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Wintermute has entered prediction markets as a liquidity provider, bringing professional market-making capacity to a sector that has grown into a major venue for trading real-world event risk. Wintermute said the firm will quote both buy and sell prices across…
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Polymarket has clarified that it is not introducing mandatory Know Your Customer checks across its main prediction market platform despite renewed scrutiny over compliance and restricted-jurisdiction access. In a post on X, Polymarket vice president of engineering Josh Stevens said…
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U.S. authorities have charged a Google software engineer with insider trading tied to prediction markets, as federal regulators continue tightening scrutiny around Polymarket and other event-based trading platforms. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, Google employee Michele Spagnuolo allegedly…
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The CFTC has moved a proposed rule on prediction-markets event contracts into White House review as federal and state officials fight over who should police the fast-growing sector. Bloomberg first reported that the proposal is now before the White House…
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Polymarket is pushing more traders toward identity checks as regulatory pressure grows over sanctions exposure, geoblocking failures and jurisdictional misuse. Polymarket is moving closer to requiring more traders to verify their identities as the prediction market faces mounting pressure over…
Follow-up
