XAUUSD weekly forecast: fundamentals push gold higher, $3700 a possibility?

Last week, we mentioned how Russia’s large-scale attack on Ukraine can push the price of gold up. Adding fuel to this bias, Iran and Israel have also locked horns, and a full-scale war has started between the two countries.

These two ongoing wars have pushed the price of gold above $3430, a key level we discussed in the previous XAUUSD weekly forecast.

The bias in gold remains buy, however, a retracement is expected this week to major key levels.  Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this weekly forecast from June 16th to June 20th, 2025.

Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news

In the previous week’s forecast, we mentioned that the range high of gold was at $3357 and the range low at $3193. Since the range high of $3357 is now broken, investors can simply wait for a retest of the range high, i.e., $3357, to enter gold and expect a decent move to the upside.

We also mentioned how gold is rising up from the key support levels of $3300-$3392, and only losing that support would be a bearish bias in gold. Gold sustained that price and since then has moved up almost 1500 points.

Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.

Key economic events of this week

Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD. 

Tue, Jun 17 

• Core Retail Sales m/m

Increased retail activity suggests a resilient economy, which might strengthen the USD and drive down gold prices.

• Retail Sales m/m

Concerns about a recession are heightened by weak overall retail sales, which may lead to a rise in demand for gold as a safe haven.

Wed, Jun 18  

• Unemployment Claims

Growing unemployment claims indicate a worsening labor market, which devalues the USD and boosts gold prices.

Wed, Jun 18 

• Federal Funds Rate,  FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference

The Fed’s outlook and tone will be the main focus of the markets. Gold might rise, and the USD could fall if there are indications of future rate reduction or dovish direction. A hawkish approach would probably drive down the price of gold.

Gold HTF Overview

The closest liquidity in gold’s weekly chart is to the upside, which is at $3500, and the internal liquidity is at $3120. The chances of $3500 hitting before $3120 are high due to fundamental and technical factors as well.

Gold Forecast for June 16th to June 20th

Gold is currently bullish in 15-minute timeframes and above. It is recommended to size up in buys and avoid a bearish bias in gold during this week. In the 30m timeframe, gold can find support in the $3420-$3403 zone and start to move up towards $3460 and beyond. This support has been tested multiple times, so it is recommended to enter in a long only after confirmation.

The next buying opportunity in gold is coming on the 1h breaker block, FVG, and order block of $3404-$3379. This is a good zone for gold to test and move up 200-500 points, depending on technical and fundamental factors, after the zone is tested in XAUUSD.

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold. 

Support Levels 

• $3357 – Weekly range high test of gold.
• $3420-$3403 – 30m gold support.
• $3404-$3379 – 1h breaker block, FVG, and order block.