Analyst claims bear, bull cycles do not affect crypto adoption

Despite the ongoing cryptocurrency bear market, adoption of blockchain technology is continuing at a rapid pace, according to recent analysis by Bloomberg analyst Jamie Coutts.

In a series of tweets, Coutts noted that the number of daily active cryptocurrency users has now exceeded five million, up 14% from 2022. Quarter-over-quarter growth in active users has averaged 29% since 2019. The overall cryptocurrency market value is down 60% from all-time highs but still up 27% compared to 2022.

Coutts predicts that based on current trends, there could be over six million active cryptocurrency addresses this quarter, representing growth above 20% quarter-over-quarter. Extrapolating further, he estimates that at a 20% quarterly growth rate, the number of daily cryptocurrency users could reach 100 million by 2028.

As a point of comparison, it took PayPal 13 years to reach 100 million daily users; they now have over 400 million users but growth has slowed. If the starting point for blockchain adoption is measured from the launch of Ethereum smart contracts in 2015, a similar eight-year timeframe to reach 100 million cryptocurrency users is reasonable.

The potential valuation impact of reaching 100 million daily cryptocurrency users is significant, according to Coutts’ analysis. Basic regressions indicate the total ecosystem value could reach between $5 to $14 trillion, up massively from today’s $350 billion market capitalization.

While simple extrapolations are not solely reliable for valuation purposes, Coutts argues that the exercise shows user growth and asset prices are closely linked. As adoption continues, prices for some crypto assets are likely to increase substantially over time.

The analysis reinforces that despite short-term cryptocurrency price declines, adoption and development of the underlying blockchain technology continues at a rapid pace. Investor exposure to this structural trend remains important even amidst bearish sentiment.