Bitcoin about to enter ‘up only mode’: Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, says Bitcoin could be on the cusp of a bullish breakout, this coming as the bellwether digital asset saw modest gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to above $83k to lead cryptocurrencies higher, but remained vulnerable amid broader risk assets downside pressure on April 11. 

Crypto.news data showed BTC hit highs of $83,200 across major crypto exchanges. However, the intraday gains came as stocks whipsawed due to ongoing tariff concerns.

Despite current market conditions showing a disconnect amid a dip in the dollar index, crypto veteran Arthur Hayes remains bullish on BTC. He shared his view via X on April 11, pointing to the surging U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.

With the US10YR climbing above 4.5%, the former BitMEX CEO suggested this could prompt a policy response from Washington.

According to Hayes, this response might come as soon as the weekend—an outcome that would put Bitcoin in an “up only mode.”

Tariffs remain a major concern for investors, with China and the U.S. entrenched in a trade war. The Chinese government recently announced retaliatory tariffs of up to 125% on U.S. imports, in response to the White House’s 145% tariff hikes.

Analyst Scott Melker commented via X that yields and China are the main downside catalyst for risk assets.

“Everything else is just details,” he noted.

Hayes’ forecast and Melker’s comments align with other expert takes from across the market. Many see the ballooning yields as the key pointer to “something being broken.” Markets even shrugged off key U.S. inflation data.

Earlier in the day, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC the U.S. was “very close” if not already in a recession. 

“I think you’re going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there’s more certainty. And we now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs. That means longer, more elevated uncertainty,” he noted.

Bitcoin traded around $82,346 at 12:20 ET on April 11.