Bitcoin braces for inflation shock as CPI puts bulls on edge

Bitcoin traders are preparing for a series of U.S. inflation reports this week that could determine whether the crypto asset can hold its recent recovery from the $60,000 area or face another wave of selling pressure.

According to Trading Economics forecasts, the Consumer Price Index report due on June 10 is expected to show headline inflation rising 0.5% month-over-month, slightly below April’s 0.6% increase.

Annual CPI is projected to accelerate to 4.2% from 3.8%, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.3% on the month and 2.9% on an annual basis.

A day later, attention will turn to producer prices. Trading Economics data shows economists expect headline Producer Price Index inflation to increase 0.6% month-over-month, down from 1.4% previously, while core PPI is forecast to ease to 0.4% from 0.6%.

Despite the monthly slowdown, Wall Street estimates cited by Trading Economics point to annual headline producer inflation reaching 6.4%, compared with 6.0% previously.

Higher-than-expected inflation readings could reduce expectations for easier monetary policy and keep pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Softer figures could have the opposite effect by supporting hopes that policymakers may avoid further tightening.

Bitcoin holds key support ahead of inflation data

Last week’s stronger-than-expected labor market report already rattled digital asset markets. As reported by crypto.news, following the release, Bitcoin briefly fell toward $59,000 as traders reassessed interest-rate expectations.

Fresh forecasts from BNP Paribas have added another layer of uncertainty. crypto.news reported last week that the French bank now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver three interest-rate hikes beginning in December 2026, reversing the three rate cuts implemented in 2025.

BNP Paribas attributed the change to persistent inflation risks, resilient labor market conditions, and economic pressures linked partly to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

The bank also expects the unemployment rate to decline toward 4% by the end of the year, a development it believes could give policymakers more flexibility to focus on inflation.

At press time, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $63,800, remaining above the key $59,000–$60,000 support area after bouncing from the 0 Fibonacci retracement level near $59,383.

Despite the bounce, the cryptocurrency continues to trade below a descending trendline that has capped every recovery attempt since the cycle peak, keeping the broader market structure bearish.

Bitcoin price also remains well below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level near $75,000, indicating that bulls have yet to reclaim any meaningful resistance zone following the recent selloff.

Momentum indicators show early signs that selling pressure may be easing but do not yet confirm a trend reversal. The weekly MACD histogram has started to recover from recent lows, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening, although the indicator remains below its neutral line.

Meanwhile, the Aroon indicator shows Aroon Up near 93% and Aroon Down around 64%, highlighting renewed buying activity from support while also indicating that sellers continue to exert influence over the broader trend.

Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s next move

The mixed technical picture aligns with the divided views among market analysts. While some traders argue Bitcoin’s defense of the $60,000 area could lead to a prolonged consolidation phase, others point to historical cycle behavior and warn that a deeper capitulation event may still be required before a durable bottom forms.

CryptoBullet warned in a June 8 X post that Bitcoin may not have experienced a full bear-market capitulation yet.

“$BTC is still trading above the Realized Price. Every Bear Market $BTC goes well below it. The big breakdown hasn’t happened yet. Get ready.”

The analyst pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price, currently near the mid-$50,000 region, noting that previous bear-market bottoms formed only after the asset traded decisively below that level. The view suggests the recent drop toward $59,000 may not be sufficient to establish a cycle low if historical patterns repeat.

A different view came from trader Daan Crypto Trades, who said Bitcoin appears to be defending the $60,000 range low. According to the analyst, the market could remain trapped between $60,000 and $80,000 for an extended period unless either boundary is decisively broken.

Institutional activity has offered some support to the bullish case. Strategy resumed Bitcoin purchases between June 1 and June 7, acquiring 1,550 BTC for $101.3 million and lifting its holdings to 845,256 BTC. The company also increased its dollar reserves to $1 billion after concerns emerged following its sale of 32 BTC the previous week, its first reported Bitcoin disposal since December 2022.