Bitcoin won’t trade near $20k in current cycle, Bitfinex forecasts

With long-term holder realized price below $20,000, Bitcoin is unlikely to trade near this level in the current cycle, analysts at Bitfinex say.

Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to trade below the $20,000 mark in the current cycle, as a cohort of long-term holders has been heavily buying the crypto since early February 2023, when BTC was trading above $24,000, analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex said in a recent research report.

With Bitcoin currently trading around $70,600, analysts highlight the short-term holder realized price standing at $55,834, indicating its critical role as a “crucial dynamic support/resistance level throughout this cycle.”

“Regardless of whether we see BTC move lower, we do not expect a V-shaped recovery as has been the case for previous dips since 2023.” Bitfinex

The analysts anticipate that any decline to $56,000 would align with the maximum downturn from a new local high to the bottom, totaling approximately 23-24%.

Bitfinex noted that recent data from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) showed net negative flows for the first time last week, with each trading day reporting a net negative flow. According to the exchange’s estimates, total outflows, predominantly from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF, amounted to over $2 billion for the week, resulting in a net outflow of $896 million after considering inflows from other ETFs.

Despite the shift to negative ETF flows, the analysts suggest that this development does not raise significant concerns, attributing the outflows to investors transitioning funds from GBTC to other ETF providers offering lower and more attractive management fees.