Dogecoin price has crashed, but a rare pattern points to a rebound

Dogecoin’s price continued its downward trend on Monday as the crypto and stock markets sank.

Dogecoin (DOGE), the biggest meme coin in crypto, dropped to a low of $0.1628, its lowest point since March 12. It has fallen by over 66% from its highest level in December.

DOGE crash happened as investors embraced a risk-off sentiment ahead of Donald Trump’s so-called Liberation Day, when he will impose reciprocal tariffs on most US trading partners, risking a recession.

These fears have sparked anxiety in the crypto and stock markets. The crypto fear and greed index has fallen into the fear zone at 24, while the stock-focused gauge has slipped into the extreme fear zone at 18.

Still, a potential positive for Dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies is that rising recession odds may push the Federal Reserve to intervene. The Fed has historically responded to major black swan events, like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis, by cutting interest rates and implementing quantitative easing.

Dogecoin price technical analysis

The daily chart shows that DOGE has been in a strong downtrend over the past few months, falling from last year’s high of $0.4836 in December to $0.1630 today.

Dogecoin has dropped below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, a sign that bears are in control. It has also broken through a key support level at $0.2260, the highest swing on March 28 last year. This price also marked the upper side of the cup and handle pattern that formed in 2023.

Dogecoin’s lowest level this year was $0.1430, the highest swing on July 21. Most importantly, it formed a falling wedge pattern, a rare bullish reversal sign. It has already moved above the upper side of the wedge pattern.

The ongoing pullback is a sign that the coin wants to form a double-bottom pattern at $0.1430, and whose neckline is at $0.2057. 

Therefore, there is a possibility that the coin will decline to $0.1430 ahead of the tariff announcement, then bounce back in April. If this scenario plays out, DOGE could rally to $0.2628, a 60% increase from current levels.

However, a drop below the support at $0.1430 would invalidate the bullish outlook.