Dogecoin price odds of hitting $1 fall, DOGE ETF chances rise

Dogecoin price is stuck in a bear market after crashing by over 47% from its highest level in December. 

Dogecoin (DOGE) token was trading at $0.255 on Thursday as the recovery after last week’s crash eased. 

Many crypto investors believe that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot DOGE ETF later this year. According to Polymarket, the odds of a spot Dogecoin ETF rose to 62% on Thursday from a low of 27% in January.

Companies like Rex Osprey and Bitwise have filed for a Dogecoin ETF so far, and several others may follow.

Meanwhile, many traders believe that the Donald Trump administration will not approve a Strategic Dogecoin Reserve this year. The odds of that happening are stuck at 10%.

Another prediction shows that the odds that the Dogecoin price will jump and hit $1 have dropped substantially as the coin has dropped. Kalshi data shows that the odds of the Dogecoin price hitting $1 by June 1 have dropped to 5%. 

Similarly, the odds of this happening by January 2026 have moved from over 60% in November last year to 19%. With Dogecoin trading at $0.2, it needs to jump by 400% to reach $1. Higher hopes of a spot ETF approval and potential inflows may be a catalyst for the coin to surge. 

Dogecoin price technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the DOGE price remains under pressure after falling by over 47% from its highest level in December. It remains below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement point at $0.2825.

Dogecoin is also about to form a death cross pattern as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages narrow. A death cross often leads to more downside as it signals that bears have prevailed. 

Dogecoin has also formed a break and retest pattern by moving back to $0.2622, its lowest swing in December. A break and retest is also a bearish continuation sign. 

It is also forming a bearish flag chart pattern. Therefore, there is a risk that the coin will have a strong bearish breakdown, potentially to $0.20, the lowest point this month. A drop below that level risks DOGE falling to $0.15, the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.