FTX contagion time-bomb will “detonate many trading firms”

The Crypto firm Multicoin said they expect to see the contagion fallout from FTX/Alameda over the next few weeks, and many trading firms will be wiped out and shut down.

Multicoin regrets putting “too much trust” in FTX

In a 3,400- plus word letter written last week, Multicoin managing partners Kyle Samani and Tushar Jain wrote to investors about the dark days to come. 

“We expect to see contagion fallout from FTX/Alameda over the next few weeks,” the letter stated. “Many trading firms will be wiped out and shut down, which will put pressure on liquidity and volume throughout the crypto ecosystem. We have seen several announcements already on this front, but expect to see more.”

On a lighter note, the letter stated the firm could retrieve about one-quarter of its assets from FTX. Yet 15.6% of the fund’s assets are still stranded there.

Multicoin managing partners Kyle Samani and Tushar Jain sadly admitted, “We put entirely too much trust in our relationship with FTX…We had too many assets on FTX.”

Multicoin claimed that, at the time, it had traded on three exchanges: FTX, Coinbase, and Binance. Now, 100% of its assets “outside of the capital stuck on FTX” is on Coinbase or in self-custody “multi-sigs,” that is, multiple different signers are required to control funds.

The real “Crypto Winter” is yet to come, says Multicoin.

Multicoin said it doesn’t expect the crypto market to turn anytime soon because there are more collapses ahead due to the sudden blowout of FTX and Alameda Research, both owned by Sam Bankman-Fried. Both entities entered bankruptcy proceedings on Friday.

In July, the five-year-old Multicoin announced a $430million fund, its third and largest to date. But due to the FTX’s collapse and the price decline across the industry, Multicoin now has their fund pushed down by 55% this month.

The letter added that the market is poised to worsen before it rebounds.

Though there is a chance for Multicoin to recover some of its funds from FTX, yet, because those assets are now wrapped up in bankruptcy proceedings, it anticipates marking them down to zero.

As other companies with assets tied to FTX seek to raise emergency funds, Multicoin, on getting back to their feet, stated, “we are looking to buy dislocated assets at attractive valuations,”

Despite the loss, Multicoin expresses hope in Solana

In the past 12 days, Solana has experienced a 64% plunge in value due to Bankman-Fried being a big booster of Solana and Alameda being a major holder of the coins.

Despite this, Multicoin says it’s holding its position and still believes in Solana. The firm pointed out that the crypto market has experienced multiple pullbacks in the last few years and has bounced back. 

“Based on our experience in 2018 and 2020, we learned that it’s not prudent to sell an asset during a short-lived crisis if the core thesis is not impaired,” the firm said

Explaining their stand on Solana explicitly, Multicoin stated Solana has “one of the most vibrant developer communities.”