Litecoin price wobbles as LTC ETF approval odds fall

Jan 12, 2025 at 5:32 PM UTC

Edited by Anna Akopian

Markets

Litecoin price wobbles as LTC ETF approval odds fall

Litecoin price remained on edge during the weekend, mirroring the performance of Bitcoin, which remained below $95,000.

Litecoin (LTC), a popular proof-of-work coin, was stuck at $103.03, down by 30% from its highest level in 2024. This decline aligns with most cryptocurrencies, which have pared back some of the gains made last year.

Litecoin’s performance was also because of the falling odds that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot LTC ETF in 2025. According to Polymarket, these odds have dropped to 42% from this year’s high of 60%.

LTC ETF odds have fallen | Source: crypto.news

Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, promoted the view that the SEC would approve a spot LTC ETF. In a December post, he argued that the agency would easily approve a Litecoin fund because it is a Bitcoin (BTC) hard fork.

We expect a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs next year, albeit not all at once. First out is likely the btc + eth combo ETFs, then prob Litecoin (bc its fork of btc = commodity), then HBAR (bc not labeled security) and then XRP/Solana (which have been labeled securities in pending… pic.twitter.com/29vMdciZxE
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 17, 2024

Canary Capital is the only company that has applied for a spot Litecoin ETF. Grayscale may also file to convert its Litecoin Trust, which has over $215 million in assets, into a spot ETF as it has done with Bitcoin and Ethereum.

While a spot Litecoin ETF would be a good thing for the coin, it is unclear whether it will gain interest from institutional investors. A good example of this is the performance of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Bitcoin funds have over $107 billion in assets, 5.7% of the total market cap. Ethereum funds have $11.6 billion, 2.96% of the market cap, indicating that institutional demand is weak.

Interest in Litecoin would be weaker than Ethereum since it is a smaller crypto project with a market cap of $7.7 billion. It has also lost market share in the crypto industry as its ranking has moved to 22 from being a top ten coin a few years ago.

Polymarket traders are optimistic that the SEC will approve Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) ETFs this year. The agency’s odds of approving a spot XRP ETF are 70%, while those of Solana ETFs are 73%. These funds may have a chance of success since the two have a market cap of $144 billion and $67 billion, respectively.