Polymarket: Failed assassination boosts Trump’s victory odds to 71%

A failed assassination attempt in Pennsylvania seems to have bettered Donald Trump’s chances of winning the winter elections, at least in the eyes of betters.

Polymarket bettors wager that Republican candidate Donald Trump has a 71% chance of winning this year’s U.S. presidential election and beat sitting Joe Biden in November. On Monday, Joe Biden’s odds of being re-elected were around 18%. Betters have tabled over $259 million on prediction platform Polymarket in a pool titled “Presidential Election Winner 2024.” 

Trump’s odds of winning rose from 60%, as seen by crypto.news, before a shooting at a Pennsylvania rally over the weekend. The near miss may have galvanized more than Polymarket bets, as crypto markets also jumped after the shooting.

Except for Ripple’s XRP token and stablecoins, all tokens in the top 10 cryptocurrencies surged at least 7% in the last 24 hours. 

Are the stars aligning for crypto?

In addition to Trump’s survival in Pennsylvania, the former president has also announced a pro-crypto running mate in JD Vance. Vance was unveiled as Trump’s pick for vice president as crypto markets recovered on Monday.

The pairing may fuel speculation that the White House could see two crypto-friendly administrators since Trump’s camp has rebranded as a crypto-friendly campaign. An Ohio senator, Vance was lauded for his bill, which sought to reshape U.S. crypto regulations.

On the macro end, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell suggested that the central bank might be closer to rate cuts than ever before. Powell said the Fed shouldn’t wait for inflation to match the 2% target before adopting dovish monetary policies.