Polymarket odds of Trump approving strategic Bitcoin reserves fall to 27%

Polymarket users predict that President-elect Donald Trump will not approve a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the first 100 days of his administration.

A poll with over $1.5 million in funds puts these odds at just 27%, down from 60% after Trump’s election. This is a notable prediction since Polymarket has been highly accurate in the past, including its estimate on the last presidential election.

Kalshi users disagree

Other participants in the prediction market expect Trump to ultimately accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a strategic reserve, joining crude oil and gold. Kalshi, for example, has placed the odds of a BTC reserve happening by January 2026 at 61%, the highest point since Dec. 21.

Some conservative-leaning states like Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have also started working on their strategic Bitcoin reserves. A bill in Pennsylvania states that the government may invest at least 10% of the State General Fund in Bitcoin to fight inflation.

Still, Polymarket and Kalshi users expect the Texas strategic Bitcoin reserve bill to take time. A Polymarket poll places the odds of Texas passing the bill by March next year at 10%, while Kalshi has the odds at 24%.

Proponents of the U.S. embracing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, argue that it makes financial sense because of the demand and supply dynamics. Data shows that Bitcoin demand is rising, with spot ETFs having over $128 billion in assets. 

Supply is falling, with the mining difficulty rising to a record high after the last Bitcoin halving event in April this year. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin balances in exchanges have continued falling this year. 

Proponents also point to MicroStrategy’s success, which has helped it become an $80 billion company by becoming the biggest Bitcoin holder. As such, some analysts predict that the U.S. could ultimately use its Bitcoin holdings to pay some of its debt, which currently stands at over $36 trillion.

Opponents argue that Bitcoin’s volatility, limited acceptance, market scale, regulatory constraints, and its implications for sovereignty and trust make it an impractical solution for paying off the U.S. national debt.

Also, the Federal Reserve has already said that it is not allowed to hold Bitcoin, meaning that it would need a congressional law to do that.

Trump has supported Bitcoin and suggested that the government should convert its Bitcoin holdings into strategic reserves. Data by BitcoinTreasuries show that the government holds 198,000 coins valued at $18 billion.