Polymarket’s largest bet misses as Trump fails to mention Bitcoin at RNC speech

Bitcoin price remained below $65,000 on Friday as Donald Trump avoided mentioning the coin and crypto in his speech at the Republican National Congress (RNC) event.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $64,200 Friday morning, roughly where it traded at 24 hours ago. In his closely-watched speech at the Republican National Convention on Thursday, Donald Trump avoided one of the hottest issues in the financial market: crypto.

Most people, including those using Polymarket, believed that he would at least mention the digital asset universe, similar to how he has done in several speeches recently.

Instead, Trump focused his speech on generic issues like taxes, immigration, geopolitics, and trade policy.

Bitcoin, altcoins, and other crypto-related stocks had been rallying before his speech as investors waited for more clarity. The rally started during the weekend after he was shot in Pennsylvania, raising hopes that he will win the general election.

Polymarket users believe that Trump is the favorite to win the election. Still, analysts caution that November is too early, and a lot can happen before then. For example, Joe Biden could drop out and be replaced by a younger candidate.

Trump is seen more favourably in the crypto community. Traders expect him to appoint a crypto-friendly SEC chair, reduce regulations, and even create a US Bitcoin strategic reserve.

Presidents have limited impact on asset classes

However, a look at historic events shows that the American president has no major impact on stocks and cryptocurrencies — although the crypto market is still very young and has minimal historical data to work with.

Still, Bitcoin performed quite well during Trump’s first term as it jumped from $800 and ended at over $20,000. It has also generated exceptional returns (so far) during Biden’s first term as it jumped to a record high of $73,800. Most crypto stocks reached their all-time highs during Biden’s term.

This performance happened even as Gary Gensler was accused of legislating through courts as he sued companies like Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken. However, it is in Gensler’s tenure that the agency approved spot Bitcoin ETFs and is expected to approve spot Ether funds.

Therefore, as Anthony Pompliano noted recently, presidents don’t have a major impact on Bitcoin. Instead, he argued that the only thing that mattered in the crypto industry was time.