Pro: Trade wars are causing recalibration, not collapse for investors

Despite concerning headlines of fresh tariffs, fractured alliances, and looming recession fears, there are still strong reasons for investors to remain positive, according to Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group.

In a note sent to crypto.news, Green pushed back against the bearish narrative, arguing that despite President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, the global economy and financial markets are showing impressive resilience, and even offers opportunities to investors.

Central banks and governments are fueling growth

One of the biggest factors bolstering investor optimism is a new wave of monetary and fiscal stimulus. Green pointed to the European Central Bank’s third rate cut of the year, now bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25%. India has also cut rates and shifted to a more supportive policy stance, while markets are now pricing in at least one U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut before year’s end.

Encouragingly, governments are not sitting back and doing nothing. The European Union approved €12 billion in fresh defense spending, alongside new tax incentives in Germany and France aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing, shows that policymakers are willing to act quickly.

“This is not 2018,” Green said. “Back then, countries were caught off guard. Now, they’re responding with stimulus, strategy and speed.”

Global economies are adapting, not crumbling

Global growth metrics remain encouraging, according to Green. Notably, China’s first-quarter GDP grew by 5.4%, beating expectations and consistent with 2024 metrics. Meanwhile, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are doubling down on public investment and regional trade ties through ASEAN, implying they are taking steps to cushion themselves from any fallout.

Even the U.S., despite reporting a -2.5% GDP contraction in the first quarter, continues to benefit from low unemployment at 3.8%, rising wages of 4.1% year-over-year, and resilient consumer demand.

Across the Atlantic, Europe’s spring economic forecast calls for 0.8% growth in 2025, with stronger momentum expected in 2026 driven by defense, infrastructure, and green technology investments.

“This is not a crisis. This is recalibration,” Green emphasized.

Investor flow is adapting, not retreating

Market behavior offers another reason to stay bullish. Despite earlier volatility, the S&P 500 has bounced back above 5,460, and the Dow traded above the 40,000 level. European equities are firming, and emerging markets, led by Southeast Asia, are holding steady.

Investor flows into Asia-focused ETFs and global defense funds are rising, signaling a strategic repositioning toward sectors and regions adapting fastest to shifting trade alliances amid shifting trade alliances.

“There’s been a regime shift,” Green explained. “But it’s one that opens up new opportunities.”

Conclusion: change, not collapse

While it’s clear that Trump’s trade moves are reshaping the global economic order, Green cautions investors against mistaking change for collapse. Central banks are easing, governments are investing, and markets are adjusting.

“The headlines might be alarming, but the fundamentals—if you’re paying attention—are actually giving investors reasons to cheer,” Green concluded.