Solana price could crash to $100 as DEX volume, chain fees plunge

Solana’s price remains in a bear market after falling over 57% from its highest level this year, with further downside likely.

Solana (SOL) dropped to $126.5 on March 21, bringing its market cap to $64.45 billion — down from over $127 billion just a few months ago, wiping out approximately $63 billion in value.

The ongoing Solana crash has been driven by major challenges within its ecosystem. Its meme coin market has collapsed, with the total market cap of Solana-based meme coins dropping from over $25 billion in January to $7.2 billion. Currently, only Official Trump (TRUMP) maintains a market cap above $1 billion.

This decline has led to a significant drop in the trading volume handled by Solana-based decentralized exchanges such as Raydium, Orca, and Meteora. DeFi Llama data shows that volume on these platforms has fallen by over 34% in the last seven days to $8.3 billion.

In comparison, DEX protocols on the BSC network handled $14.2 billion during the same period, while Ethereum DEXs processed $9.65 billion. Over the last 30 days, Solana’s DEX protocols handled $61 billion in volume, trailing Ethereum’s $78 billion.

This marks a major reversal, as Solana had been the most active chain for DEX trading since October last year. The decline has also impacted network revenue. Data shows that Solana generated $21.2 million in revenue this month, down from $90 million last month and a peak of $258 million in January.

Solana price technical analysis

The daily chart shows that SOL has been in a strong downward trend over the past few months. It plunged from $295 in February to $126 as challenges within its ecosystem intensified.

Solana formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed each other on March 3. The coin is now forming a bearish flag pattern, which is made up of a long vertical line and a rectangle pattern. This pattern usually results in a strong bearish breakdown.

The pennant is developing at a critical support level that Solana has struggled to break below since April last year. A confirmed breakdown below this level would likely trigger further losses, with the next target around $100, approximately 25% below the current price.