Strategy’s BTC gains prompt bullish $521 price target from H.C. Wainwright

MicroStrategy sharply increased its capital-raising target and 2025 bitcoin acquisition goals in its earnings report, prompting a bullish revision from analysts at H.C. Wainwright.

In a research note dated May 2, analyst Mike Colonnese turned incremenetally bullish on Strategy’s stock with a price target lifted from $480 to $521, citing increased BTC holdings forecasts and strong execution on capital raising.

As part its first quarter earnings report on Thursday, Strategy doubled its capital plan to $84 billion through 2027, up from the $42 billion goal announced in late 2024. The new “42/42” plan includes $42 billion in equity and $42 billion in fixed-income issuance, including convertibles and preferreds.

The firm has already raised $10 billion this year and acquired 106,085 Bitcoin (BTC) to date. Strategy’s bitcoin yield through April was 13.7%, representing 91% of its original annual target, with a $5.8 billion gain already booked, or 58% of the initial goal.

Bullish momentum

Strategy’s Q1 2025 results included the purchase of 80,715 BTC for $7.7 billion, funded via equity and convertible bond issuance. An additional 25,370 BTC was bought in April. The firm’s BTC yield for Q1 stood at 11%, with a $4.1 billion gain based on quarter-end prices.

Colonnese now expects Strategy to end 2025 with 691,249 BTC, up from a prior estimate of 601,029. His BTC gain forecast rises to $12 billion, with a year-end price assumption of $150,000 per coin. While still below the company’s revised guidance of $15 billion in gains and a 25% BTC yield, Colonnese sees Strategy’s capital access and performance as strong indicators of growth.

Despite cutting projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 to $461.2 million and $475.7 million respectively, down from previous estimates of $473 million and $485.1 million, Colonnese emphasized the company’s ability to maintain a premium valuation. The $521 price target is based on a 2x premium to the firm’s projected 2025 net asset value of $103.7 billion.