The real winner of the 2024 US elections will be crypto | Opinion
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Crypto is the darling of the 2024 elections, and I’m totally here for it. For the first time in history, two presidential candidates are actively courting the crypto vote. Donald Trump made his pitch at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference addressing crypto voters, which was met with an astonishing vote of support from the crypto community. Democrats, unwilling to concede the crypto vote to Trump, held a crypto reset meeting with prominent industry leaders and also launched ‘Crypto for Harris.’
However, in the not-so-distant past, many proclaimed crypto “dead.” The industry experienced a brutal crypto winter, losing over two trillion in market cap in 2022 and global scrutiny from regulators. Now, two years later, crypto has emerged as the dominant player in the 2024 elections. Game on.
The SEC’s villain origin story
Crypto’s ascension into a key player on the political stage is rooted in its antagonistic sparring with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. According to Binance attorneys, Gary Gensler approached Binance to become an advisor in 2019, but the company rejected his offer.
Since 2021, there has been a considerable uptick in SEC crypto-related cases since President Joe Biden appointed Gary Gensler as the Chair of the SEC. Coincidence? I think not. Three court cases that truly establish the SEC as the chief crypto supervillain:
- Number one, in the Telegram court case, the company had to return over a billion US dollars from a token raise. Ushering the reign in of SAFTs, Simple Agreement For Future Tokens contracts, and the ICO boom in the US.
- Number two is the Ripple Labs case, which ultimately found its native token, Ripple (XRP), to be a security on the institutional side but not a security on the retail side.
- Third, the BitMEX case, where the arrests of the founders of such a top-tier exchange for AML/KYC violations, usually a slap on the wrist, shook the industry.
The legal actions taken against these companies were like warning shots fired by the SEC, foreshadowing the heavy hand they would take towards major crypto companies.
The switch up: From a friend to a foe
Once crypto winter hit, after Terra Luna collapsed, public sentiment was that bad actors in the space need to be removed and held accountable. Seizing on the opportunity, the SEC began its crypto crackdown, handing out Wells notices like Halloween candy, forcing some companies to divest from US operations or close up shop to stop the bleeding.
Even companies once seen as allies became targets. The irony is that the SEC accused Coinbase of operating an illicit exchange. Coinbase has acted as a custodian of the US government, working directly with the US Marshals Service to sell Bitcoin (BTC) confiscated from the “illicit” website, the Silk Road.
This is a rather strange “UNO reverse” move by the SEC since Coinbase is US-based, a BitLicense holder, along with being a publicly traded company.
Crypto fights back
A major noticeable change is the crypto industry has gone on the offensive, accusing federal regulators of refusing to create reasonable crypto regulations and guidelines for the industry. Gemini COO Marshall Beard voiced his frustration in an interview with Bloomberg TV: “We’ve been asking for broader regulation, we’ve been doing this for a decade now, and the US does not have a broad crypto regulation framework.”
Key players in the crypto space beefed up government relations efforts by partnering with lobbying firms and donating campaign dollars to crypto-friendly candidates. Some have even hit back by counter-suing the SEC.
According to Open Secrets, a campaign finance tracking site, crypto political campaign contributions have dramatically increased from the 2020 election cycle to 2022. Nearly 50% of the corporate donations are coming from crypto companies. To top it off, Fairshake is the largest Super PAC, crypto industry-funded, in this campaign cycle, raising over $200 million. Solidifying crypto’s dominance and influence in the 2024 elections.
Key voting bloc in swing states
Crypto voters are taking front and center in the 2024 US Presidential elections. Perianne Boring, CEO and founder of the Chamber of Digital Commerce, accurately predicted this scenario in a 2022 CNBC interview:
“I think that the watershed moment for crypto and politics is likely to be in 2024 and I think the next presidential election. The candidate that is able to figure out how to leverage blockchain to tap into the crypto community is going to be our next president.”
Political analysts anticipate the US Presidential election to be a very tight race, where small factions in the electorate may hold the key to victory. The crypto industry has taken note, going to painstaking lengths to position crypto as a wedge issue, collecting extensive data and research about swing voters.
Data from a recent Harris poll suggests that one in five battleground state voters consider crypto a key issue. The industry as a whole has crypto voters who are very engaged, very active, and very aware of their power in the upcoming election.
Stand With Crypto, a pro-crypto advocacy group, has already amassed close to 1.5 million online registrations. Their America Loves Crypto Tour is hitting five battleground states in September to increase crypto voter turnout.
Playing all sides to win
Crypto lobbying groups have pledged no allegiance to any side and actively donate to both Republicans and Democrats. However, that has not stopped crypto leaders like Arthur Hayes and Charles Hoskinson from weighing in on the elections. With some going as far as endorsing candidates.
The Winklevoss twins have thrown their support behind Donald Trump, while Ripple’s co-founder, Chris Larsen, is backing Kamala Harris. Crypto industry visibility has surpassed anything seen in previous campaign cycles. Thereby positioning its community as a key voting demographic so that candidates must earn their votes.
Regardless of which candidate wins, crypto has proven to be the real winner of the 2024 elections by coming back from a brutal crypto winter and an equally difficult assault from federal regulators: Going from being written off completely by mainstream media to artfully mastering DC politics, rising from the ashes like a Phoenix.
