US election bets make up 88% of Polymarket’s volume

Polygon-based Polymarket has seen a substantial portion of its 2024 trading volume—88%—stemming from bets related to U.S. election outcomes, according to Dune Analytics data.

Elections in America have dominated activity on blockchain prediction platforms like Polymarket, which has recorded over $650 million in trading this year. Nearly half of that volume occurred in July alone, as traders placed significant bets on candidates like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris becoming president in November.

Richard Chen, a former general partner at 1confirmation, noted that Dune data shows markets tagged “Presidential Election Winner 2024” and “Democratic Nominee” account for 50% of the platform’s trading volume.

Election-related bets have outperformed wagers on other events, such as the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund in January and even the Paris Olympics this month.

Beyond non-election events, interest in the Polygon-powered betting service still made its mark throughout the year. Volume spikes unrelated to America’s presidential ballot were recorded in January, May, June, and August.

While Polymarket has shown strong performance this year, the question remains whether it can maintain its momentum during a non-election year. Chen believes that crypto whales and the platform’s existing momentum will continue to drive sufficient volume.

Polymarket: Harris ahead of Trump

Users with wagers in the prediction market’s largest bet backed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to beat former president Donald Trump on the ballot.

As crypto.news reported, Harris upstaged Trump’s previous lead shortly after the Republican runner survived an attempt on his life during a Pennsylvania rally. Harris had a 51% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 47%, with Polymarket users having placed $642 million in cumulative bets on the election outcome.