XRP at a crossroads: will $2 hold or crumble?

XRP is sitting at $2.1639 this Monday, caught in a tug-of-war between $2.1704 and $2.1318. The $2 level is like a lighthouse for traders, a steady beacon of support for the altcoin. But the mood is souring—derivatives traders are betting on a fall, and daily interest is fading fast. Will XRP stand tall, or is a storm brewing for this crypto contender?

XRP price prediction 

XRP broke out of its consolidation phase on April 27. Since then the altcoin has attempted to rally closer to resistance at $2.39, R1 in the XRP/USDT price chart. XRP is currently trading 15% under its target resistance at $2.50, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the peak of $3.40 to a low of $1.61. 

Two technical indicators on the daily price chart support a bullish thesis for XRP. The RSI and MACD, RSI reads above 54, the neutral level and MACD flashes green histogram bars. 

The $3 level is a key target for XRP in May 2025, a daily candlestick close above R1 and R2 could confirm the altcoin’s uptrend and bring the target in play for the token.

XRP derivatives data analysis 

Data from Coinglass shows, XRP volume is up 24% and open interest, the net volume of all open derivatives contracts is down less than 1% in the last 24 hours. The long/short ratio is under 1, meaning derivatives traders are not yet bullish, at the start of the week. 

Derivatives analysis implies sidelined buyers should proceed with caution when opening a position in XRP as market uncertainty prevails. The 24 hour liquidation is $5.24 million, and a majority $4.89 million is long positions, the rest is short. Meaning traders that are bullish on XRP were punished for their bets and paid for short positions on derivatives exchanges.

On-chain analysis and prediction

XRP whale transactions in two segments, valued at $100,000 and higher and greater than $1 million declined, as seen on on-chain intelligence platform Santiment. A decline in whale transactions typically signals a loss in interest, however aggregate funding rates by XRP flash a green histogram bar, supporting a thesis that there is demand for XRP. 

Funding rate turned positive on May 1 after closing April with two consecutive days of negative funding rate readings. Typically, positive funding rate implies that the price of derivatives contracts is higher than the spot market price of the asset, and this is bullish for the token in the medium to short-term. 

SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit- Tying loose ends

The closure of the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit and the delay of the XRP ETF filing are likely related events. Bill Morgan, a renowned lawyer told followers on X that the deadline of the Ripple lawsuit appeal is delayed from April 16 to June 15. 

The SEC has delayed Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF approval to June 17, 2025, just after the expiry of the 60-day wait period for the Ripple lawsuit. According to Morgan, this is “potentially strategic” timing, expressing his bullish sentiments towards an ETF approval in 2025. 

Expert commentary

Forest Bai shared his insights on whether XRP will gain digital Gold status or face regulatory challenges. The co-founder of Foresight Ventures told Crypto.news, 

“I believe XRP is unlikely to become digital gold due to its primary design as a payment protocol, not a store of value like gold. Its centralized structure and regulatory challenges further limit its potential to achieve gold-like status.”

Dan Tapiero of 10T Holdings bullish on XRP ETF launch told CoinDesk that despite early criticism of XRP, the altcoin is resilient and the team has been through a lot (Tapiero likely refers to the lawsuit and the delisting across major exchanges).